Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

Abstract

In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species’ ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These ‘range‐shift’ abilities can be studied using life‐history traits related to four range‐shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species’ ranges fill the climatically suitable area available (‘range filling’) as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species’ ranges supports the assertion that post‐glacial range‐shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early‐reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range‐shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post‐glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range‐limited by non‐climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non‐climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.

Determinants of geographic range size in plants

“…Hypotheses for intrinsic ecological limits on range size focus on differences among species in the ability to colonize new habitat. Successful colonization requires several steps (Estrada et al , ): first, emigrating from an occupied site and arriving at a new, unoccupied location (the dispersal ability hypothesis ; Hanski et al , ) and second, tolerating new conditions well enough to establish a viable population and proliferate (the niche breadth hypothesis ; Brown, ). The former requires consideration of not just movement per se but also life‐history traits such as fecundity and abundance that affect propagule pressure (Fagan et al , ).…”

Projected avifaunal responses to climate change across the U.S. National Park System

“…Ecological niche model projections include many inherent uncertainties [ 24 ] relevant to this study. Significant changes in climate suitability, as measured here, will not always result in a species response for multiple reasons, including biotic interactions known to both inhibit and facilitate species’ colonization and extirpation [ 66 ]; species’ evolutionary adaptive capacity (i.e., the ability to evolve), life history traits [ 67 ] and phenotypic plasticity (e.g., behavioral adjustments [ 68 ]) mediating responses to climate change; and absence of ecological processes (e.g., that create/maintain habitats or impact demography) in the projections [ 41 , 69 ]. Finally, the TSS-based threshold used to distinguish between improving/worsening conditions and potential colonization/extirpation was selected to balance errors of omission and commission in the models themselves, but results in some imperfections [ 70 – 71 ] and is not the only thresholding method.…”

Changes in potential mammal diversity in national parks and their implications for conservation

“…Different reasons may arise for the absence of these species in favorable areas, with dispersal limitation, habitat specialization, and type of reproduction being recently identified as primary causes related to species life-history traits ( Estrada et al. 2015 , 2017 ; Riibak et al. 2017 ).…”