Eruption frequency patterns through time for the current (1999–2018) activity cycle at Volcán de Fuego derived from remote sensing data: Evidence for an accelerating cycle of explosive paroxysms and potential implications of eruptive activity

Abstract

Eruption frequency patterns through time for the current (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) activity cycle at Volcán de Fuego derived from remote sensing data: Evidence for an accelerating cycle of explosive paroxysms and potential implications of eruptive activity. AbstractVolcán de Fuego is a stratovolcano in Guatemala that has produced over 50 VEI  2 eruptions since 1524. After two decades of quiescence, in 1999 Fuego entered a new period of eruptive activity that continues until the present day, characterised by persistent Strombolian activity interspersed with occasional "paroxysmal" eruptions of greater magnitude, the most recent of which occurred in 2018. The land surrounding Fuego accommodates tens of thousands of people, so greater understanding of its eruptive behaviour has important implications for hazard assessment. Nevertheless, there is relatively little literature that studies recent (since 1999) activity of Fuego in detail.Using time-series analysis of remote sensing thermal data during the period 2000 -2018 combined with recent bulletin reports, we present evidence for a new eruptive regime beginning in 2015. We find that this regime is defined by a greater frequency of paroxysmal eruptions than in previous years and is characterized by the following sequence of events: (i) effusion of lava flows and increase in summit explosive activity, followed by (ii) an intense eruptive phase lasting 24 -48 hours, producing a sustained eruptive column, continuous explosions, and occasional pyroclastic flows, followed by (iii) decrease in explosive activity. We discuss various models that explain this increase in paroxysmal frequency, and consider its implications for hazard assessment at Fuego. We advocate the pairing of remote sensing data with monitoring reports for understanding long-term changes in behaviour of poorlyinstrumented volcanoes. The results that we present here provide a standard for informed assessment of future episodes of unrest and paroxysmal eruptions of Fuego. KeywordsVolcán de Fuego -paroxysm -MIROVA -radiative power

Characteristics of Repeating Long‐Period Seismic Events at Fuego Volcano, January 2012

“…Finally, our geologically reasonable criteria mean that possible sources are limited to a relatively small area in the shallow cone. We justify this decision based on the lack of any drastic reorganization of the vent system in the subsequent 6 years of eruptive activity since our data was collected, despite several periods of increased eruptive activity (Naismith et al, ). Visual comparisons of satellite imagery indicate that any observable changes to the volcanic edifice are restricted to the immediate vicinity of the active vents or to the barranca systems which trend south.…”

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

“…Despite this progress, lives and livelihoods are still impacted by volcanic activity that has not been adequately forecast (Figure ). In just the last decade, a relatively small but unforeseen phreatic explosion at Ontake volcano, Japan, in 2014 killed nearly 60 people (Maeda et al, ); a relatively large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4 explosion at Calbuco, Chile, in 2015 was not forecast despite the presence of some monitoring stations and an understanding of the threat posed by the volcano based on historical eruptions and geological mapping (e.g., Delgado et al, ); over 100,000 people evacuated their homes during the reawakening of Agung volcano, Indonesia, in mid‐late 2017, fearing a repeat of the volcano's disastrous 1963 eruption, but impacts thus far have been restricted to the volcano's crater and upper flanks (Syahbana et al, ); an unexpectedly violent paroxysm from Fuego, Guatemala, in June 2018 generated pyroclastic flows that killed hundreds and destroyed a community (Naismith et al, ); in late April 2018, it was clear that a new dike intrusion or lava breakout at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, was likely, but the magnitude of that change to the volcano's 35‐year‐long eruption and the resulting devastation to the surrounding community (over 700 structures destroyed) were not anticipated (Neal et al, ). …”

Thermal Remote Sensing for Global Volcano Monitoring: Experiences From the MIROVA System

“…Finally, the quantification of the thermal activity by means of a parameter that compute in a standardized and consistent way (such as the VRP), allows for the comparison between different volcanoes or between different eruptions of the same volcano. Statistical analysis of the VRP allows identification of distinct thermal regimes and may be used to detect change of activity, such as from Strombolian activity to effusive activity Naismith et al, 2019; see section "Forecasting Eruptive Trends"), or the occurrence of episodes of dome growth (Werner et al, 2017). During the growth of a new spatter cone on February 29, 2016 inside the Nyiragongo Crater, MIROVA data were used to eventually advise about anomalous large thermal emissions within the lava lake and/or the presence of active lava flows in areas around the volcano (see details in the following section).…”