Estimate the Primary Parameters of Extreme Earthquake on Banda Sea, Indonesia

Abstract

Extreme earthquake events always have an impact on human life, when the intensity of events becomes greater than a certain intensity it will cause disaster. The intensity of a small earthquake occurs at any time without significant side effects. Based on statistical analysis it was revealed that earthquakes with greater intensity occur more difficult than small intensities. In the discussion, earthquake data showed that there were fluctuations in earthquake events which indicated a different maximum earthquake. Thus, major disasters occur because a small portion of major events occurs. The Banda Sea Region is an active earthquake area that contains earthquake events above magnitude 5 Richter scale (Rs) each year with a total average of above 815 major earthquake news during 1970-2018. The results of seismic studies in the Banda Sea region show a return period of 7.5 Rs magnitude earthquake quake is around 48 years and a probability of around 0.020%. Magnitude 7.0 Rs earthquake has a repetition interval of around (12-17) years with a probability of around 0.061%. In this study the analysis of earthquake probabilities and earthquake magnitude in the span of 30 years. An earthquake measuring (5.5-6.5) Rs, for example, has a probability of 100%, but if an earthquake measuring 7.7 Rs is chosen, the probability drops to 46%.

Evaluation of Return Period and Occurrence Probability of the Maximum Magnitude Earthquakes in Iraq and Surroundings

“…The following formula can be used to determine the likelihood that an earthquake of a certain magnitude will occur at any time t [28] :…”

“…A number of studies have used Gutenberg-Richter to evaluate the probability of earthquake occurrence and the return period, for example, in Chile [1], India [21], Indonesia [22], [23], [24], Nebal [25], Turkey [26], Algeria [27]. Many researchers used one or more statistical distribution models (Gumbel, Gaussian, Lognormal, Gamma, and Weibull), to estimate the probability of earthquakes occurrence and the return period, e.g., Indonesia [28], [29], Japan [30], and Red Sea [31], [14], Saudi Arabia [32], and Turkey [33], [15], and China [8], [34].…”