Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009

Abstract

BackgroundThe estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200–64,500). We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007–2009 using improved methodology.MethodologyWe estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups.Principal FindingsEstimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400–54,700) in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100–62,900) in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800–53,800) in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200–54,000) in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%–39.8%; p = 0.017) increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%–60.4%) increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM). There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p<0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU) 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%.Conclusions/SignificanceOverall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006–2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and ethnic minorities. Expanded, improved, and targeted prevention is necessary to reduce HIV incidence.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Trust in Health Care: HIV Conspiracy Beliefs and Vaccine Research Participation

“…Despite advances in the effectiveness and availability of medical therapy for HIV, we have not yet observed substantial decreases in HIV transmission on a national or global level. 41 HIV vaccine research involving volunteer human subjects will therefore be necessary for the foreseeable future, and participation of racial and ethnic minority groups who are most heavily affected by HIV/AIDS will be essential for the success of these efforts. Our findings suggest that while misinformation about HIV research and treatment continues to circulate, it may be a less significant barrier to minority recruitment into HIV research studies than has been feared.…”

Estimating the Number of Young Black Men who have Sex with Men (YBMSM) on the South Side of Chicago: Towards HIV Elimination within US Urban Communities

“…1 The rate of new HIV infections increased by 48 % among YBMSM aged 13-29 between 2006-2009, distinguishing the group as the only risk group to experience a statistically significant increase in new infections during the time period. 1 Recent estimates show the rate of new HIV infections among YBMSM aged 13-24 increasing by 17 % between 2009-2010; although this increase was not statistically significant. 2 The state of the HIV epidemic is similar in the city of Chicago.…”

Economic, Legal, and Social Hardships Associated with HIV Risk among Black Men who have Sex with Men in Six US Cities

“…The HIV rate among Black men overall is the highest of any racial/ ethnic category, with 104 infections per 100,000 men. 1,2 Men who have sex with men (MSM) account for the majority (51 %) of new HIV infections among Blacks in general and among Black men (72 %) in particular. 3 Between 2007 and 2010 Black MSM, aged 13-24, accounted for 45 % of new HIV infections among Black MSM and the majority (55 %) of new HIV infections among MSM overall.…”