Estimated number of deaths directly avoided because of COVID-19 vaccination among older adults in Colombia in 2021: an ecological, longitudinal observational study

Abstract

Background: Colombia’s national COVID-19 vaccination plan began in February of 2021. It gave priority to older adults, who constituted 77.7% of deaths from this illness in the year 2020. The main goal of the plan is to decrease specific mortality and the number of serious COVID-19 cases, however, the number of deaths avoided by this strategy is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of avoided deaths in Colombia by fully vaccinating older adults against COVID-19, during the first year of the implementation of the national vaccination plan. Methods: This study took on the design of an ecological, longitudinal study. Full vaccination coverage for older adults was calculated for each epidemiological week and age group from March to December 2021, based on which the number of avoided COVID-19 deaths was estimated. A sensitivity analysis was performed taking into account variations in the vaccines’ effectiveness by age group. Results: In Colombia, over 5.3 million adults 60 years of age and older received full COVID-19 vaccinations between March and December 2021. During that same period, nearly 46,000 deaths of older adults from this cause were registered. We estimated that vaccination has avoided around 22,000 more older adults from dying from COVID-19 in Colombia, that is, 32.4% of expected deaths in 2021. According to the sensitivity analysis, the number of lives saved ranged from 19,597 to 36,507. Conclusions: Colombia’s strategy to vaccinate older adults against COVID-19 has avoided mortality for this age group from being 48.0% higher than what was observed during the study period. Even more lives have been saved when taking into account the parameters that were defined and the omission of the contribution from partial vaccinations.

COVID-19 mortality in two waves of the pandemic in Cali, Colombia, before and during vaccination roll-out

“…Deaths averted were calculated with the method described by Machado used in the MSPS Colombia study ( 9 ). Associated with the effect of vaccination, approximately 3 763 deaths were averted in the fourth wave in Cali ( Table 5 ).…”

“…Israel, Malta, and the United Kingdom had lower anticipated mortality, notably in persons over 80 ( 16 ). In Colombia, MSPS conducted an ecological analysis that predicted 22 000 deaths averted in people over 60, or 32.4% of expected deaths in 2021 ( 9 ).…”

“…Deaths averted were calculated with the method described by Machado used in the MSPS Colombia study ( 9 ), which is based on the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing negative health outcomes, population coverage, and the change in frequency of these outcomes after applying the vaccination intervention ( 13 ). For this calculation, an estimated 81% overall effectiveness ( VE j ) of vaccines to prevent death ( 14 ) was used in the following equation:…”

“…An ecological longitudinal study by the Colombian Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MSPS) estimated 22 000 deaths averted by mass vaccination of adults over 60 in the first year of the NVP ( 9 ). COVID-19 deaths could be prevented by any effective therapeutic approach, but even more so by vaccine-generated personal immunity preventing infection progression to death—the most significant expected effect of vaccination.…”

What we talk about when we talk about COVID-19 vaccination campaign impact: a narrative review

“…They also explored three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning: the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-year immunity duration scenarios. Rojas-Botero et al ( 33 ) estimated the number of directly averted deaths due to COVID-19 vaccination among older adults in Colombia. The authors calculated the full vaccination coverage of older adults, for each epidemiological week and age group, from March to December 2021.…”