Estimating Climate Influence Of The Potential Covid-19 Pandemic Spreading In Algeria

Abstract

This document aims to investigate the potential influence of climate on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the direct and indirect effects of climate are felt all over the planet, although their magnitude and manifestations vary. According to estimates by the World Health Organization (WHO), climate change could be the cause of nearly 250,000 additional deaths per year worldwide between 2030 and 2050 (Word Health Organization, 2021). This study focused on examining the relationship between climate (Temperature, humidity, and wind speed) and hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in a well-selected sample of wilayas in Algeria. In this brief, we want to shed light on the likely course and geographic spread of the epidemic. The purpose of this article is to answer the main question of the study: We do this by examining the effect of climate (temperature, humidity, and wind speed) on hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in the wilayas of Algiers, Blida, Oran, Adrar, Setif and Tamanrasset. The choice of wilayas is based on the availability, quality, and consistency of the data required. Our analysis suggests that high temperature and humidity or high relative wind speed tend to hamper the spread of the virus and that a high population density tends to facilitate its transmission. This does not mean that higher temperatures are enough to contain the disease. The climate potentially plays a role in the spread of many respiratory viruses. It appeared important to know if this could also be the case for the new coronavirus, COVID-19. While the role of climate in the transmission is still difficult to quantify, it is clear that other factors are taken into account in the transmission of COVID-19, namely mainly compliance with the rules of physical distancing and barrier gestures. This study focused more particularly on the effects of absolute climate (Temperature, humidity, and wind speed). 90% of infections would have occurred in areas where the temperature is between 3 and 17 degrees and the absolute humidity is between 4 and 9 g / m3, 35 to 85% relative humidity (Bukhari Q., Jameel Y., 2020). We address the issue of the impact of climate on the spread of COVID-19, we use the SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) model to estimate the relationship between climate and COVID-19 cases in Algeria during the period between April 18th, 2020, and April 17th, 2021 inclusive. The results of the SUR model estimate, also showed that there is no real climate that can damage the pandemic situation in Algeria during the period studied.

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