Estimating coalition majorities during political campaigns based on pre-election polls

Stoetzer, Lukas F.; Orlowski, Matthias

doi:10.1080/17457289.2019.1582533

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…They are the foundation for apportioning the proportion of seats in a number of democracies that are based on the parliamentary system. Eventually, poll results define who the legitimate voters' representatives are (Stoetzer & Orlowski, 2020). The appropriate publication of poll results is able to raise the degree of confidence among voters and other election monitors (Han, 2019).…”

Section: Candidate Attractiveness Versus Election Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Candidate’s physical attractiveness as a consequence in an election

Mwesigwa

Obici

2022

IJPPA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to deconstruct election results within the framework of candidate’s physical attractiveness. There is a mounting fear that modern-day political institutions are not presenting candidates with the social aptitude that they need to become successful in election processes. This deficiency has placed a growing burden on political parties to boost the victory of their candidates by making sure that the process of selecting candidates transforms into a rewarding time of political victory. In view of the countless contestations and proof of the dearth of social abilities in political parties, the emphasis of this article is on how political parties in Uganda can identify appealing candidates for the modern-day voter. Methods: By means of a desk review technique, definitions are given as well as an earlier theory as a basis for a projected model of enhancing candidate victory. Findings: The findings reveal that candidate’s physical attractiveness contributes positively towards the election outcome given that candidates that are physically less attractive are likely to score lower in an election. Unique contribution of theory, practice and policy: The study suggests that to neglect the power of a candidate’s physical attractiveness in an election is comparable to surrendering election victory to the opponent. For effective application, political party leaderships should include the elements of physical attractiveness in their strategic plans when choosing candidates for the next election cycle.

show abstract

Section: Candidate Attractiveness Versus Election Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Candidate’s physical attractiveness as a consequence in an election

Mwesigwa

Obici

2022

IJPPA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We argue that information about the coalition situation – the context in which the coalition is forming – allows voters to make better predictions. At election time, there is often some polling evidence or some examples of news coverage that will help shape voter expectations (Stoetzer & Orlowski 2020). In national elections, of course, this kind of information is plentiful but is much less plentiful in sub‐national elections and so we can expect to see a wide variation in the amount of information available to voters from state to state.…”

Section: Voting In Multi‐party Systems: How Do Voters Predict Who Will Be In Government?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Voter expectations of government formation in coalition systems: The importance of the information context

Bowler

McElroy

Müller

2021

European J Political Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Can voters in multi-party systems predict which coalition will form the government with any degree of accuracy? To date, studies which explore voter expectations of coalition formation have emphasized individual level attributes, such as education, but the complexity of the environment at the time the coalitions are forming should also be consequential in enabling (or handicapping) voters in forming expectations. We examine the relative effects of individual level attributes (e.g., education, cognitive mobilization) versus contextual factors (e.g., information availability) in 19 German state elections and 3 German general elections between 2009 and 2017. We find that the ease of identifiability of alternative future governments varies significantly across multi-party systems. We find that respondents are more likely to predict governments that they would like to see in office, that have a higher probability of receiving a majority of seats, and that consist of ideologically proximate parties. Combining survey data with a novel indicator of coalition signals, measured through a quantitative text analysis of newspaper coverage, we also find that voters consider positive pre-election coalition signals when predicting the government. Finally, we find that the information environment is much more relevant for correct coalition predictions than individuallevel characteristics of respondents. Although individual attributes do influence predictive ability, these factors are strongly dominated by the context in which the prediction is taking place. The information environment has by far the largest effect on predicting coalition outcomes. Our results have implications for the literature on strategic voting in multi-party settings, as well as the literature on accountability.

show abstract

Insights From The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election: Polarisation, Fractured Politics, Inequality, and Constraints on Power

Al-Fadhat

Choi

2023

Journal of Contemporary Asia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Estimating coalition majorities during political campaigns based on pre-election polls

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

Candidate’s physical attractiveness as a consequence in an election

Candidate’s physical attractiveness as a consequence in an election

Voter expectations of government formation in coalition systems: The importance of the information context

Insights From The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election: Polarisation, Fractured Politics, Inequality, and Constraints on Power

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About