Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the impact of individual actions: a retrospective model-based analysis

Fair, Kathyrn R; Va, Karatayev; Anand, Madhur; Ct, Bauch

doi:10.1101/2021.03.26.21254421

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Most mathematical modelling of infectious disease occurs at the population scale and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic there have been many such studies (cf. Tang et al (2020); Moyles et al (2021); Yuan et al (2022a); Fair et al (2022); Childs et al (2022); Vignals et al (2021); Betti et al (2021); Dick et al (2021); Moore et al (2021); Moss et al (2020); Smirnova et al (2021); Wells et al (2021); Li et al (2020); Yuan et al (2022b); Hogan et al (2021)). While the impacts of vaccine efficacy and waning are important at these scales, the actual process of immune development occurs within-host.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans

Moyles

Heffernan

Korosec

2022

Preprint

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A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans

Moyles

Heffernan

Korosec

2022

Preprint

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“…Various studies have shown, for instance, the necessity of keeping NPIs in place during the vaccine rollout in 2021, a year after the start of the pandemic (1,2). The literature on the usefulness of NPIs and their effects on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is vast (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of time-varying adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions on the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves: A modeling study

N’konzi

Chukwu

Nyabadza

2022

Front. Public Health

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) play a central role in infectious disease outbreak response and control. Their usefulness cannot be overstated, especially during the early phases of a new epidemic when vaccines and effective treatments are not available yet. These interventions can be very effective in curtailing the spread of infectious diseases when adequately implemented and sufficiently adopted by the public. However, NPIs can be very disruptive, and the socioeconomic and cultural hardships that come with their implementation interfere with both the ability and willingness of affected populations to adopt such interventions. This can lead to reduced and unsteady adherence to NPIs, making disease control more challenging to achieve. Deciphering this complex interaction between disease dynamics, NPI stringency, and NPI adoption would play a critical role in informing disease control strategies. In this work, we formulate a general-purpose model that integrates government-imposed control measures and public adherence into a deterministic compartmental epidemic model and study its properties. By combining imitation dynamics and the health belief model to encode the unsteady nature of NPI adherence, we investigate how temporal variations in NPI adherence levels affect the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Among the results, we note the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves as a result of temporal variations in NPI adherence and a trade-off between the stringency of control measures and adherence. Additionally, our results suggest that interventions that aim at increasing public adherence to NPIs are more beneficial than implementing more stringent measures. Our findings highlight the necessity of taking the socioeconomic and cultural realities of affected populations into account when devising public health interventions.

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“…This mechanism may be relevant to severe coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, where scalable NPIs have been highly successful in preventing cases and deaths [17, 18]. Here we develop a stochastic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population behavioural dynamics can mediate the persistence of emerging infectious diseases

Fair¹,

Karatayev²,

Anand³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The critical community size (CCS) is the minimum closed population size in which a pathogen can persist indefinitely. Below this threshold, stochastic extinction eventually causes pathogen extinction. Here we use a simulation model to explore behaviour-mediated persistence: a novel mechanism by which the population response to the pathogen determines the CCS. We model severe coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a population where both individuals and government authorities restrict transmission more strongly when SARS-CoV-2 case numbers are higher. This results in a coupled human-environment feedback between disease dynamics and population behaviour. In a parameter regime corresponding to a moderate population response, this feedback allows SARS-CoV-2 to avoid extinction in the trough of pandemic waves. The result is a very low CCS that allows long term pathogen persistence. Hence, an incomplete pandemic response represents a “sour spot” that not only ensures relatively high case incidence and unnecessarily long lockdown, but also promotes long-term persistence of the pathogen by reducing the CCS. Given the worldwide prevalence of small, isolated populations in which a pathogen with low CCS can persist, these results emphasize the need for a global approach to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination.

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Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the impact of individual actions: a retrospective model-based analysis

Cited by 3 publications

References 44 publications

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans

Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans

Effect of time-varying adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions on the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves: A modeling study

Population behavioural dynamics can mediate the persistence of emerging infectious diseases

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