Estimating future wood outtakes in the Norwegian forestry sector under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Hu, Xiangping; Iordan, Cristina Maria; Cherubini, Francesco

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.004

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the course of cooperation with developed countries, which took place through the opening of production subsidiaries of transnational corporations on the territory of underdeveloped countries, these countries adopted modern energy-intensive technologies and moved to a higher level of energy development [12].…”

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the global energy resource market

Volotkovskaya¹,

Volotkovskaya

Семенов

et al. 2020

E3S Web Conf.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The paper analyses the global demand for various energy resources in recent years. Nowadays, qualitative and quantitative changes in structure of distribution and consumption of energy resources take place. The paper has reviewed a number of papers predicting two-fold increase in the global energy production market by 2040. A number of other papers also predict the shift of energy demand from the USA and EU countries to the Asian market. The paper presents percentage distribution of world’s energy requirements satisfied by the six types of resources among which oil, gas, and coil are still predominant. Some papers have stated that the demand for natural gas will continue to grow faster than the demand for oil or coil in the future. To confirm or deny this theory the authors have designed the mathematical model showing trends in demand for gas compared to the total demand for oil and coal; as a result, two different polynomial functions have been obtained with almost the same probability confirming this prediction. Trends in energy production and change of global energy demand across regions over the past twenty years have been studied. The studies show that, in general, energy production has been increased for the last decade. However, due to economic crises fluctuations, energy production in EU countries has abruptly decreased; it results in displacement of the EU countries from the market by the countries of the Middle East and the Near East. The paper also notes such important factors as decrease in solid fuel production in Great Britain; steady increasing importance of renewable energy sources for the last few years; reducing of the rate of nuclear energy development by some key countries; general lack of energy recourses in EU countries, etc.

show abstract

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the global energy resource market

Volotkovskaya¹,

Volotkovskaya

Семенов

et al. 2020

E3S Web Conf.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, these studies lack the level of detail presented in our FSPs, especially in terms of how income growth and SSP policy assumptions can influence technological change and forest management changes at the intensive and extensive margins. Other regional forest sector assessments, such as the ones recently done for Norway (Hu et al, 2018) and New Zealand (Daigneault et al, 2017), can be improved through downscaled FSP narratives instead of following the more generalized SSP assumptions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

Daigneault

Johnston

Korosuo

et al. 2019

JfE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socioeconomic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, * We thank the participants of the Forest Sector Modelling workshop at IIASA in March 2017 for their valuable input.

show abstract

“…They have better precision than those of global models. Therefore, the errors of the projection results are smaller than the global scale models [24,30,43,51]. SSP in regional impact assessment models not only predict future change in land use, water resource, energy and so on, but also give an effective way to quantitatively simulate long-term changes under alternative futures [43].…”

Section: Methods Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forest Resource Projection [51], Tree Yield Regression Model population, GDP, historical data on tree species and wood grades, temperature, precipitation, land-use spatial distribution.…”

Section: Nufer (Nutrient Flows and Food Chain Environment Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Shi

Cui

2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do not meet the demand for regional environmental assessment and social sustainable development. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed and discussed how SSPs were applied to regions, and this can be summarized into four main categories: (1) integrated assessment model (IAM) scenario analysis, (2) SSPs-RCPs-SPAs framework scenario analysis, (3) downscaling global impact assessment model, and (4) regional impact assessment model simulation. The study provides alternative ways to project land use, water resource, energy, and ecosystem service in regions, which can carry out related policies and actions to address climate change in advance and help achieve sustainable development.

show abstract

Estimating future wood outtakes in the Norwegian forestry sector under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Cited by 16 publications

References 33 publications

Analysis of the global energy resource market

Analysis of the global energy resource market

Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About