Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces

Fronzek, Stefan; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Nunes, João Pedro; Pirttioja, Nina; Räisänen, Jouni; Toko, Kiyoshi; Terämä, Emma; Yoshikawa, Minoru; Carter, Timothy R.

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466

Climate Risk Management

2022

DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466

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Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces

Stefan Fronzek

Yasushi Honda

Akihiko Ito

et al.

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2024

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Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

El Garroussi,

Di Giuseppe,

Barnard

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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This study quantifies how changes in temperature and precipitation would influence the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. The analysis explores the impact of a range of climate change projections on fire events compared to a baseline of fire danger, using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring in any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 °C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increased probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, would put extra strain on Europe’s ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.

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Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

El Garroussi,

Di Giuseppe,

Barnard

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces

Cited by 1 publication

References 77 publications

Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

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