Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications

Abstract

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism

“…The deceleration in rates of sexual reoffending over time mirrors literature about desistance of general criminal behavior associated with age related positive personal and social changes over the life course (Sampson & Laub, 2003). Research has discovered that individuals desist from committing sexual reoffenses because of age‐related declines in sexual drive, lack of victim accessibility, benefits from treatment for sexual offending, fear of returning to custody, resilience to progress beyond their offending past, and time free in the community without committing nonsexual crimes (Barbaree & Blanchard, 2008; Hanson, 2005; Francis et al, 2014; Hulley, 2016; Harris, 2016; Thornton et al, 2019). Moreover, various nonsexual and sexual criminal history variables appear to influence the rate of sexual reoffending over time (Francis et al, 2014; Hanson & Bussiere, 1998).…”

“…The study reveals that the risk for detected sexual reoffenses decreases by about one‐half for every five years that offenders remain free in the community without committing a sexual crime. Thornton et al (2019) have devised a Microsoft Excel calculator for clinical and forensic applications that uses survival analysis parameters to compute lifetime risk (i.e., 20 years) based on the amount of time free in the community without a subsequent sexual crime less any time spent in custody for nonsexual crimes or community supervision violations. Since this procedure relies on the detected sexual reoffense rate, it fails to account for the effect of undetected sexual reoffending committed by PDPs that is necessary to estimate actual sexual recidivism rates.…”

“…Second, Thornton (2018) hypothesizes that the number of victims per recidivist and the rate of sexual reoffending among individuals whose sexual offenses go undetected may not be reliable when applied to PDPs for three reasons: they are subject to increased societal vigilance that results in them having less opportunity to reoffend sexually, they are easily suspected of reoffending, and allegations against them are more easily believed. Because of these seemingly insurmountable hurdles, Thornton (2018) abandoned RRR formula in favor of the lifetime sexual recidivism rate (Thornton et al, 2019).…”

“…An alternate, related procedure for computing lifetime rates of sexual recidivism has been recently suggested (Thornton, Hanson, Kelley, & Mundt, 2019). This work builds upon a study about the sexual reoffense experiences of 7740 PDPs that was modeled over 25 years (Hanson, Lunetta, Phenix, Neeley, & Epperson, 2014).…”

Estimating the probability of sexual recidivism among men charged or convicted of sexual offences: Evidence-based guidance for applied evaluators

“…These long-term findings suggest two things. Firstly, long-term rates of recidivism (e.g., 20-25 years) are roughly double the rate of 5-year estimates, although the gap reduces as risk increases (Thornton et al, 2021). Secondly, recidivism is most likely to occur in the early years of release.…”