Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism

Abbott, Brian R.

doi:10.1002/bsl.2494

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Recidivism rates based on official data can also be influenced by historical, political, cultural, social, legal, individual, and correctional factors (e.g., Cohen, 1986; Maltz, 1984; Mosher et al., 2010). Recognizing this raises questions about the extent to which traditional measures of sexual recidivism using official data fail to capture all instances of sexual reoffending (e.g., Abbott, 2020; Scurich & John, 2019) and are influenced by offenders’ ability to avoid detection (Lussier et al., 2011). One possibility that could extend the work conducted here is to establish a national database measuring SOR rates (see Hargreaves & Francis, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sexual recidivism drop in Canada: A meta‐analysis of sex offender recidivism rates over an 80‐year period

Lussier

McCuish

Proulx

et al. 2022

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research summary In the past, the Canadian government followed in the footsteps of its American counterpart by enacting “sex offender laws.” Since the 1990s, however, the Canadian criminal justice system has taken a different approach to the issue of sex offender recidivism (SOR), focusing on treatment, rehabilitation, and community risk management. This evidence‐based approach has been criticized for not doing enough to prevent convicted offenders from sexually reoffending. This criticism has not been addressed empirically, leaving open the question of whether this Canadian policy shift is associated with changes in the rate of sexual recidivism. The present study uses a meta‐analytic framework to look at 185 Canadian‐based studies involving over 50,000 offenders, making it possible to combine 226 sexual recidivism rates. After controlling for factors such as follow‐up length and the independence of samples, weighted pooled recidivism rates have declined since the 1970s by more than 60%. This trend may have gone unnoticed because it is not related to the year of publication but to the period in which the data were collected. Policy implications The findings have significant implications for criminal justice practices including the importance of using risk assessment tools that are regularly calibrated to reflect the evolution of sexual recidivism rates over time. Although the current study cannot provide firm conclusions about the factors responsible for this gradual drop, several hypotheses are discussed. Knowledge‐based criminal justice practices, better training for professionals, and improvements in treatment programs may have had a subtle and cumulative impact on sexual recidivism rates. The importance of examining period effects on SOR using a comparative and international perspective is discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sexual recidivism drop in Canada: A meta‐analysis of sex offender recidivism rates over an 80‐year period

Lussier

McCuish

Proulx

et al. 2022

Criminology & Public Policy

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“…The observed sexual recidivism rates would also underestimate the true rates because not all offences are detected. Although the size of the gap between detected and undetected reoffenders remains a topic of debate (Abbott, 2020; Lave et al, 2021; Scurich & John, 2019), there is no question that nonreporting obscures the true recidivism rate. We believe, however, that the gap between detected and undetected offenders should decrease as the follow-up time increase.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend

Hanson

Lee²,

Thornton³

2022

Sex Abuse

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Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs ( n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%–70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

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“…We are not the only ones who resolved to critically assess Scurich and John's analysis when it was published in 2019. Abbott (2020) discusses many of the same issues we identify (and many we do not), ultimately concluding that Scurich and John's mix of strategies and assumptions “effectively invalidates their findings” (p. 543). Nevertheless, our work, conducted concurrently with Abbott (2020), makes a number of distinct contributions to the conversation about the usefulness and reliability of Scurich and John's conclusions, including by formally replicating and probing the robustness of their underlying empirical estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Abbott (2020) discusses many of the same issues we identify (and many we do not), ultimately concluding that Scurich and John's mix of strategies and assumptions “effectively invalidates their findings” (p. 543). Nevertheless, our work, conducted concurrently with Abbott (2020), makes a number of distinct contributions to the conversation about the usefulness and reliability of Scurich and John's conclusions, including by formally replicating and probing the robustness of their underlying empirical estimates. Our goal is to ensure that nontechnical consumers of Scurich and John (2019) understand exactly what their research does and what it does not do, what sorts of claims it can be used to support, and which would be inappropriate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The problem with assumptions: Revisiting “The dark figure of sexual recidivism”

Lave

Prescott

Bridges

2021

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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What is the actual rate of sexual recidivism given the well‐known fact that many crimes go unreported? This is a difficult and important problem, and in “The dark figure of sexual recidivism,” Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (2019) attempt to make progress on it by “estimat[ing] actual recidivism rates . . . given observed rates of reoffending” (p. 171). In this article, we show that the math in their probabilistic model is flawed, but more importantly, we demonstrate that their conclusions follow ineluctably from their empirical assumptions and the unrepresentative empirical research they cite to benchmark their calculations. Scurich and John contend that their analysis undermines what they call the “orthodoxy in academic circles” (p. 173) of low sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sexual offenses, but we underscore that their article does not analyze data in the traditional sense; instead, it just interprets past scholarly work through the use of strong assumptions in a way that, for practitioners, is likely to be opaque and misleading (and, for us, strays into speculation, argument, or advocacy and away from objective research). Our simple calculations show that their findings are highly sensitive to their assumptions, and we conclude that courts and others should recognize Scurich and John's work for what it is—a set of complex hypotheticals that are no more reliable than what judges and lawyers accomplish on their own by simply recognizing the basic problem that not all sexual offenses are reported.

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Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism

Cited by 8 publications

References 35 publications

The sexual recidivism drop in Canada: A meta‐analysis of sex offender recidivism rates over an 80‐year period

The sexual recidivism drop in Canada: A meta‐analysis of sex offender recidivism rates over an 80‐year period

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend

The problem with assumptions: Revisiting “The dark figure of sexual recidivism”

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