Estimating Model-Based Oral Reading Fluency: A Bayesian Approach

Abstract

Oral reading fluency (ORF), used by teachers and school districts across the country to screen and progress monitor at-risk readers, has been documented as a good indicator of reading comprehension and overall reading competence. In traditional ORF administration, students are given one minute to read a grade-level passage, after which the assessor calculates the words correct per minute (WCPM) fluency score by subtracting the number of incorrectly read words from the total number of words read aloud. As part of a larger effort to develop an improved ORF assessment system, this study expands on and demonstrates the performance of a new model-based estimate of WCPM based on a recently developed latent-variable psychometric model of speed and accuracy for ORF data. The proposed method was applied to a data set collected from 58 fourth-grade students who read four passages (a total of 260 words). The proposed model-based WCPM scores were also evaluated through a simulation study with respect to sample size and number of passages read.

Addressing the Large Standard Error of Traditional CBM-R: Estimating the Conditional Standard Error of a Model-Based Estimate of CBM-R

“…An automatic speech recognition engine scored each reading, scoring each word as read correctly or incorrectly (accuracy) and recording the time duration to read the passage (speed). Model-based WCPM estimates (Kara et al, 2020) were based on these readings and data, such that a model-based WCPM score was estimated for each measurement occasion based on the 10 to 12 passages read.…”

“…The aimswebPlus represent the smallest SEM reported in the research report across fall, winter, and spring estimates. The model-based WCPM estimates were computed based on the Bayesian approach described in Kara et al (2020). SEM = standard error of measurement; CBM-R = curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency; CSEM = conditional SEM.…”

“…The present study uses a model-based estimate of WCPM, based on a recently proposed latent-variable psychometric model of speed and accuracy for CBM-R data (Kara et al, 2020). The model-based CBM-R WCPM estimates are based on a two-part model that includes components for reading accuracy and reading speed.…”

“…Parameters in the accuracy and speed models are jointly modeled and estimated. For a detailed description, please see Kara et al (2020).…”

“…The purpose of this study was to compare the SEM of traditional CBM-R WCPM scores and the CSEM of the model-based WCPM estimates proposed by Kara et al (2020), particularly for students with or at risk of poor reading outcomes. Our research questions are as follows.…”