Estimating potential increases in travel with autonomous vehicles for the non-driving, elderly and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions

Abstract

Automated vehicles represent a technology that promises to increase mobility for many groups, including the senior population (those over age 65) but also for non-drivers and people with medical conditions. This paper estimates bounds on the potential increases in travel in a fully automated vehicle environment due to an increase in mobility from the non-driving and senior populations and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions. In addition, these bounding estimates indicate which of these demographics could have the greatest increases in annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and highlight those age groups and genders within these populations that could contribute the most to the VMT increases. The data source is the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS), which provides information on travel characteristics of the U.S. population. The changes to light-duty VMT are estimated by creating and examining three possible travel demand wedges. In demand wedge one, non-drivers are assumed to travel as much as the drivers within each age group and gender. Demand wedge two assumes that the driving elderly (those over age 65) without medical conditions will travel as much as a younger population within each gender. Demand wedge three makes the assumption that working age adult drivers (19-64) with medical conditions will travel as much as working age adults without medical conditions within each gender, while the driving elderly with medical any travel-restrictive conditions will travel as much as a younger demographic within each gender in a fully automated vehicle environment. The combination of the results from all three demand wedges represents an upper bound of 295 billion miles or a 14% increase in annual light-duty VMT for the US population 19 and older. Since traveling has other costs besides driving effort, these estimates serve to bound the potential increase from these populations to inform the scope of the challenges, rather than forecast specific VMT scenarios.

Factors Preventing the Use of Alternative Transport Modes to the Car in Later Life

“…Potential advantages in this sense are those related to improvements in route operations, with consequent reductions in traffic congestion, fuel emission, cost and driving stress; improved road safety and the opportunity to engage with other activities while travelling. Moreover, AV's are likely to increase transport access to unserved populations such as older people, disabled and more generally the non-driving population [123][124][125][126]. As advocated by Burns [127], AV's has the potential for the development of a system based on better connected, coordinated, shared, driverless, electric and tailored vehicles.…”

Policy and society related implications of automated driving: A review of literature and directions for future research

“…It should be noted that these studies did not take into account any potential changes in travel demand because of the introduction of automated vehicles. For example, Harper, Hendrickson, Mangones, and Samaras (2016) estimated that light-duty VMT could increase by up to 14% in the US, only through the additional travel demand of the non-driving, elderly, and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions because of automated vehicles.…”

“…Such improvements could allow older adults to drive for more years despite declining of their functional abilities. Harper et al (2016) estimated the extent to which total travel demand could increase in the US because of an increase in travel demand by the non-driving, elderly, and people with travel-restrictive medical conditions. They assumed that in a fully automated vehicle context, people currently facing mobility restrictions would travel just as much as normal drivers within each age group and gender.…”

Dawn of autonomous vehicles: review and challenges ahead

“…3.1.4 Equity Private AVs bring mobility to people who would otherwise be unable to drive such as teenagers, elderly, people without driver's licence (Harper et al, 2016). Disabled people may also benefit from AVs, depending on their degree of disability.…”

“…Dawn of autonomous vehicles: review and challenges ahead Sousa, Almeida, Coutinho-Rodrigues and Natividade-Jesus widely accessible, whereas Harper et al (2016) expect a 14% increase in vehicle miles travelled. The potential of AVs to reduce travel costs and travel time may also induce people to make more, and/or longer, trips -Jevon's Paradox (Norton, 2015).…”