Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, Sarath; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1

Cited by 115 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In contrast, the corresponding meteotsunamis at Bunbury (wave height of 1.03 m) and Busselton (wave height of 1.10 m) had the highest wave heights recorded at these stations ( Fig. 12; Table 1) and were equivalent to the maximum storm surges recorded at these stations during tropical cyclone Alby in 1978 (Bureau of Meteorology 2012; Haigh et al 2014).…”

Section: Meteotsunami: 10 June 2012mentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Inset shows a higher resolution of the south-west region with meteorological stations Nat Hazards (2014) 74:281-303 283 (*0.25 m) amounts to a large proportion of the local tidal range. Extra-tropical storms cause most of the storm surge events, which have magnitudes of up to 1 m; however, surges of up to 1.5 m have been recorded when tropical cyclones track south over the region (Haigh et al 2014). Australia's west coast is also exposed to seismic tsunamis originating from the Java trench.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observations of meteorological tsunamis along the south-west Australian coast

Pattiaratchi

Wijeratne

2014

Nat Hazards

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Tide gauge data were used to identify the occurrence, characteristics, and cause of tsunamis of meteorological origin (termed 'meteotsunamis') along the Western Australian coast. This is the first study to identify meteotsunamis in this region, and the results indicated that they occur frequently. Although meteotsunamis are not catastrophic to the extent of major seismically induced basin-scale events, the wave heights of meteotsunamis examined at some local stations in this study were higher than those recorded through seismic tsunamis. In June 2012, a meteotsunami contributed to an extreme water-level event at Fremantle, which recorded the highest water level in over 115 years. Meteotsunamis (wave heights [0.4 m, when the mean tidal range in the region is *0.5 m) were found to coincide with thunderstorms in summer and the passage of low-pressure systems during winter. Spectral analysis of tide gauge time series records showed that existing continental seiche oscillations (periods between 30 min and 5 h) were enhanced during the meteotsunamis, with a high proportion of energy transferred to the continental shelf oscillation period. Three recent meteotsunami events (22 March 2010, 10 June 2012, and 7 January 2013) two due to summer thunderstorms and one due to a winter frontal system were chosen for detailed analysis. The meteotsunami amplitudes were up to a factor 2 larger than the local tidal range and sometimes contributed up to 85 % of the non-tidal water signal. A single meteorological event was found to generate several meteotsunamis along the coast, up to 500 km apart, as the air pressure disturbance propagated over the continental shelf; however, the topography and local bathymetry of the continental shelf defined the local sea-level resonance characteristics at each location. With the available data (sea level and meteorological), the exact mechanisms for the generation of the meteotsunamis could not be isolated.

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Section: Meteotsunami: 10 June 2012mentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations of meteorological tsunamis along the south-west Australian coast

Pattiaratchi

Wijeratne

2014

Nat Hazards

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“…Furthermore, meteorically induced storm surges, tide-surge interaction effects causing phase variation, and local conditions (e.g., bathymetry) complicate combined tide and surge predictions (which we call storm tide). Recently, progress has been made in forecasting extreme storm tides around complex coastlines allowing for more accurate estimates between gauged locations [Horsburgh et al, 2008;Lewis et al, 2011Lewis et al, , 2013 and in the prediction of the heights and probabilities of extreme sea levels [McMillan et al, 2011;Batstone et al, 2013;Haigh et al, 2014aHaigh et al, , 2014b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm‐tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

et al. 2014

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The probability of extreme storm-tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within the duration of such events and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies such variability during extreme storm-tide events (the combined elevation of the tide, surge, and their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around the UK. Extreme storm-tide events were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 and 2012. At each site, the variability in elevation at each time step, relative to a given event peak, was quantified. The magnitude of this time series variability was influenced both by gauge location (and hence the tidal and nontidal residual characteristics) and the time relative to high water. The potential influence of this variability on coastal inundation was assessed across all UK gauge sites, followed by a detailed case study of Portsmouth. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Portsmouth region was used to demonstrate that given a current 1 in 200 year stormtide event, the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the upper and lower bounds of the observed time series variability. The results indicate that variability in the time series of the storm-tide event can have considerable influence upon overflow volumes, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the envelopes of variability defined in this research provides a valuable tool for coastal flood modelers.

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“…However, at present, long time series of simulated sea levels are only available for limited regions (e.g. Haigh et al, 2013), although global modelling efforts may extend this possibility in the future.…”

Section: Limitations and Future Research Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Budiyono

Aerts

Tollenaar

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the DamagescannerJakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCPsea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

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Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

Cited by 115 publications

References 41 publications

Observations of meteorological tsunamis along the south-west Australian coast

Observations of meteorological tsunamis along the south-west Australian coast

Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm‐tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

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