Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach

Goyal, Ashima; Arora, Sanchit

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.023

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Perrelli-Roache [2014] 24 feltörekvő országból álló minta alapján jelentős csökkenést dokumentál a természetes kamat nagyságában.) A feltörekvő országokra vonatkozó becslések azonban a folyamatos strukturális változások miatt nehézkesebbek (Goyal-Arora [2013]).…”

Section: A Természetes Kamat Csökkenésének Hatásaiunclassified

Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben

Czeczeli

2023

Közgazdasági Szemle

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Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetbenA tanulmány kiindulópontja a 2008-as válságot követő, tartósan alacsony kamatok kora, mely a koronavírus-járvánnyal bezárólag a kamatláb és növekedési ráta negatív különbségével (rg < 0) volt jellemezhető. A szerző az időszak adta kedvező lehetőségek részletes számbavétele mellett a körültekintő megközelítésmód fontosságára hívja fel a figyelmet. Nemcsak a kamatok megfordulása okozta negatív következmények, de a költségvetési fegyelem gyengülésének veszélye, a kamatláb endogenitásának problémaköre, valamint a bizalom is központi szerepet játszik számos egyéb tényező mellett. A tanulmány részletesen áttekinti a monetáris politika oldaláról jelentkező hatásokat, majd adósságdekompozíciós vizsgálatok keretében feltárja, hogy a koronavírus-járványt követően milyen főbb változások figyelhetők meg az adósság dinamikájában az európai uniós országok körében. Míg a 2020-as évben az adósságráták emelkedésének fő mozgatórugói a gyenge növekedési ráták és a megemelkedett elsődleges deficitek voltak, addig a következő évben az adósságráták javulása elsősorban szintén a növekedési hatásokra vezethető vissza, a nominális adósságállományok csökkentésének elmaradása mellett. * Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: H60, H63, E40, E50.* A tanulmány a METU Fenntarthatósági és Versenyképességi Kutatóintézet kutatási programja keretében készült.

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Section: A Természetes Kamat Csökkenésének Hatásaiunclassified

Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben

Czeczeli

2023

Közgazdasági Szemle

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“…AS and AD curves derived in a basic dual-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, as well as econometric estimations surveyed in Goyal (2015), support an elastic supply subject to shocks. Goyal and Arora (2016) estimate the AS slope to be 0.13. Goyal and Kumar (2018) get a value of 0.1 for the elasticity of inflation to changes in marginal cost.…”

Section: Implementing Inflation Targeting In Emerging Marketsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The equilibrium real rate, because of the continuing industrial slowdown was negative at that time. Goyal and Arora (2016), who include structural features such as a dual labour market, estimate India's natural interest rate to be negative in slowdowns and positive in booms. The IMF's (2017 pp.…”

Section: Evaluating Performance Of Inflation Targeting In Indiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Flexible Inflation Targeting: Concepts and application in India

Goyal

2022

IPPR

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The paper analyses issues important in adapting flexible inflation targeting (FIT) to emerging markets. This sets the context in which the evolution of FIT in India and its performance record are analysed. The dominance of supply shocks implies flexibility and fiscal-monetary coordination are necessary. Coordination can reduce the output sacrifice of disinflation, even as it aids fiscal consolidation. Communication has a major role in guiding expectations towards the inflation target. Strict implementation of inflation targeting imposed a large output sacrifice in the early years, but reversal to flexible implementation, in line with the original agreement, succeeded in keeping inflation largely within announced tolerance bands with a good growth recovery. Forecasting has improved and errors in both directions indicate the absence of bias. While there were supportive events in the initial years, such as the 2014 crash in oil prices and softening of food price inflation, the regime has also survived adverse periods of pandemic related supply-chain snarls and rising oil prices. A long period of disinflation and output sacrifice need not be necessary to anchor inflation expectations when there is complementary supply-side action. Since policy has to respond if inflation persistently exceeds the tolerance band, this also contributes to anchoring inflation expectations.

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“…By employing a quarterly data for 75 countries from 2000 to 2013, result shows a positive relationship between interest rate changes and the reserve transfer as a share of GDP. Correspondingly, Goyal and Arora (2016) analyse the natural interest rate for India by exploiting a few of the relevant structural features of Indian emerging economy [12]. Result indicates that interest rate elasticity of output is generally higher when the natural interest rate is included in aggregate demand estimation.…”

Section: Review Of the Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic Analysis of Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Approach

Idris¹

2019

IJFBR

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This study examines the impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1980 to 2017. This phenomenon is particularly interesting from a theoretical standpoint as well as for the understanding of financial market mechanisms. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and the Granger causality test are employed to estimate the model coefficients and measure the causal relationship among the concerned variables. From the VAR-based impulse response function and its corresponding variance decomposition estimates, result shows the existence of negative relationship between interest rate and economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, the Granger causality test indicates the presence of bi-directional causal relationship between interest rate and economic growth. Consequently, monetary authorities should designed and implement interest rate policies that enhance investment and take into cognisance other elements that retard investment progression. To attain the desired growth level in Nigeria, monetary authorities and policy makers should adopt policy measures that are growth oriented and have the potentials to accelerate the economy to higher productivity and sustainable economic growth.

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Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach

Cited by 11 publications

References 19 publications

Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben

Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben

Flexible Inflation Targeting: Concepts and application in India

Macroeconomic Analysis of Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Approach

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