Estimating the influence of high temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence in China

Abstract

The burden of disease caused by ambient high temperature has become a public health concern, but the association between high temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remain indistinct. We used Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate the burden of disease attribute to high temperature, adjusting for long-term trend and weather confounders. Total 18167455 cases were reported in 31 Chinese provinces, the incidence of HFMD showed a gradually increasing trend from 2008 to 2017 in China. Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) was mainly concentrated at 17°C to 23°C in the age group less than 5 years old, 18°C to 25°C in the age group 6~10 years old and 19°C to 27°C in the age group above 10 years old. The greatest RR in age group 0~5 years old was 2.06 (95%CI: 1.85~2.30) in Heilongjiang, and the lowest RR was 1.02 (95%CI: 1.00~1.05) in Guangdong; the greatest RR in age group 6~10 years old was 2.24 (95%CI: 1.72~2.91) in Guizhou, and the lowest RR was 1.01 (95%CI: 0.97~1.12) in Tianjin; the greatest RR in the age group over 10 years old was 2.53 (95%CI: 1.66~3.87) in Heilongjiang, and the lowest RR 1.02 (95%CI: 0.71~1.46) in Henan. We found the positive association between high temperature and HFMD in China.

Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study

“…The DLNM also revealed that the cumulative effect is highest at 25°C during the 14 days lag period. It is important to note that our research outcomes may diverge from studies conducted in other regions of China, where the relationship between average temperature and HFMD may exhibit an "M-shaped" pattern (37,38). Moreover, we have also observed a positive correlation between relative humidity and the occurrence of HFMD.…”