Estimating the prevalence of infectious agents using pooled samples: Biometrical considerations

Abel, Ulrich; Schosser, Rudolf; Süß, Jochen

doi:10.1016/s0934-8840(99)80009-7

Cited by 26 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…4,12,[16][17][18][19][40][41][42] One common recommendation is to take large samples of mosquitoes 41,42 because infection is a rare event and a large sample increases the probability of collecting an infected mosquito, improving the accuracy of the estimated infection rate. In the laboratory, grouping mosquitoes in small pools is recommended to minimize the random error of the estimated infection rate because small pools approach individual mosquito testing.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the laboratory, grouping mosquitoes in small pools is recommended to minimize the random error of the estimated infection rate because small pools approach individual mosquito testing. 4,40,42 However, smaller pools would make the testing less cost-effective, 12 and may be beyond the reasonable limits of public health infrastructures in many areas. The limits of pool size would not only be determined by budget and facilities but also by the maximum pool size recommended for a particular assay on the basis of its chemistry.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sources of Error in the Estimation of Mosquito Infection Rates Used to Assess Risk of Arbovirus Transmission

Bustamante¹,

Lord²

2010

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Infection rate is an estimate of the prevalence of arbovirus infection in a mosquito population. It is assumed that when infection rate increases, the risk of arbovirus transmission to humans and animals also increases. We examined some of the factors that can invalidate this assumption. First, we used a model to illustrate how the proportion of mosquitoes capable of virus transmission, or infectious, is not a constant fraction of the number of infected mosquitoes. Thus, infection rate is not always a straightforward indicator of risk. Second, we used a model that simulated the process of mosquito sampling, pooling, and virus testing and found that mosquito infection rates commonly underestimate the prevalence of arbovirus infection in a mosquito population. Infection rate should always be used in conjunction with other surveillance indicators (mosquito population size, age structure, weather) and historical baseline data when assessing the risk of arbovirus transmission.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sources of Error in the Estimation of Mosquito Infection Rates Used to Assess Risk of Arbovirus Transmission

Bustamante¹,

Lord²

2010

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…Pooled samples were stored at Ϫ80°C until further processing. The biostatistical rationale of pooling has been described elsewhere (1).…”

Section: Real-time Rt-pcr Accuracy and Precisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Throughput Procedure for Tick Surveys of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its Application in a National Surveillance Study in Switzerland

Gäumann

Mühlemann

Strasser

et al. 2010

Appl Environ Microbiol

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“…Tel. : + 32 2 764 3375; Fax: + 32 2 764 3470; E-mail: Niko.Speybroeck@UCLouvain.be prevalence is often lower than 10% (Katholi et al, 1995;Abel et al, 1999), high numbers of vectors need to be collected, and each individual vector in this sample would then need to be subjected to one or more diagnostic tests to determine its infection status (Munoz-Zanzi et al, 2006). The resulting high diagnostic costs necessitated the development of alternative solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most straightforward approach would be to divide the number of positive pools by the total number of samples tested [thereby obtaining an estimate of the Minimum Infection Rate (MIR)]. However, as the MIR can underestimate the prevalence, several other statistical methods have been proposed to estimate the individual-based prevalence based on the pool prevalence (Farrington, 1992;Abel et al, 1999;Cowling et al, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the prevalence of infections in vector populations using pools of samples

Speybroeck

Williams

Lafia

et al. 2012

Medical Vet Entomology

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Abstract. Several statistical methods have been proposed for estimating the infection prevalence based on pooled samples, but these methods generally presume the application of perfect diagnostic tests, which in practice do not exist. To optimize prevalence estimation based on pooled samples, currently available and new statistical models were described and compared. Three groups were tested: (a) Frequentist models, (b) Monte Carlo Markov-Chain (MCMC) Bayesian models, and (c) Exact Bayesian Computation (EBC) models. Simulated data allowed the comparison of the models, including testing the performance under complex situations such as imperfect tests with a sensitivity varying according to the pool weight. In addition, all models were applied to data derived from the literature, to demonstrate the influence of the model on real-prevalence estimates. All models were implemented in the freely available R and OpenBUGS software and are presented in Appendix S1. Bayesian models can flexibly take into account the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test (as well as the influence of pool-related or external variables) and are therefore the method of choice for calculating population prevalence based on pooled samples. However, when using such complex models, very precise information on test characteristics is needed, which may in general not be available.

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Estimating the prevalence of infectious agents using pooled samples: Biometrical considerations

Cited by 26 publications

References 31 publications

Sources of Error in the Estimation of Mosquito Infection Rates Used to Assess Risk of Arbovirus Transmission

Sources of Error in the Estimation of Mosquito Infection Rates Used to Assess Risk of Arbovirus Transmission

High-Throughput Procedure for Tick Surveys of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its Application in a National Surveillance Study in Switzerland

Estimating the prevalence of infections in vector populations using pools of samples

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