Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948–1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo

Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, Katsuaki; Yamada, Akio; Kakitani, Itsuki; Kwan, Nigel C. L.

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.11.018

Cited by 21 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…We did not find peer-reviewed literature that specifically described the latent period (E). Therefore, a lognormal distribution to describe the incubation period was reproduced from a study in which the date of exposure and onset of clinical signs were extracted from 92 case-records of rabies-infected dogs between 1948 and 1954 in Japan [31]. We included uncertainty in the distribution parameters (mean and standard deviation); in the model the median incubation period was 22.2 days (95% range 7.4–65.8 days).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rabies-induced behavioural changes are key to rabies persistence in dog populations: Investigation using a network-based model

2019

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Canine rabies was endemic pre-urbanisation, yet little is known about how it persists in small populations of dogs typically seen in rural and remote regions. By simulating rabies outbreaks in such populations (50–90 dogs) using a network-based model, our objective was to determine if rabies-induced behavioural changes influence disease persistence. Behavioural changes–increased bite frequency and increased number or duration of contacts (disease-induced roaming or paralysis, respectively)–were found to be essential for disease propagation. Spread occurred in approximately 50% of model simulations and in these, very low case rates (2.0–2.6 cases/month) over long durations (95% range 20–473 days) were observed. Consequently, disease detection is a challenge, risking human infection and spread to other communities via dog movements. Even with 70% pre-emptive vaccination, spread occurred in >30% of model simulations (in these, median case rate was 1.5/month with 95% range of 15–275 days duration). We conclude that the social disruption caused by rabies-induced behavioural change is the key to explaining how rabies persists in small populations of dogs. Results suggest that vaccination of substantially greater than the recommended 70% of dog populations is required to prevent rabies emergence in currently free rural areas.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rabies-induced behavioural changes are key to rabies persistence in dog populations: Investigation using a network-based model

2019

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“…Moreover, N contact was modelled using probability distribution according to the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) described in Tojinbara et al (). The probability of a companion dog having a contact with other dogs during dog walk ( P contact ) was first considered because 16.6% of the responses ( n = 1,108) had a zero N contact , that is, owners answered that their dogs never contact another dog during dog walking.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the contact rate between companion dogs during dog walking and the practices towards potential cases of rabies among dog owners in Japan

Kwan

Inoue

Yamada

et al. 2019

Zoonoses and Public Health

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This study aimed to examine the habits of dog walking in Japan using an internet survey of insured dog owners. About 96.4% of the respondents (n = 1,151) reported that they would take their dogs for a walk and they most frequently walk their dogs once or twice a day (75.9%) for 30 min to 1 hr (83.1%). The probability of a companion dog having contact with other dogs during dog walking was estimated to be 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81–0.85), and the associated daily contact rate was estimated using log‐normal distribution with a mean of 2.73 (95% CI: 2.42–3.11) and a standard deviation (SD) of 6.39 (95% CI: 5.18–7.84). Multiple linear regression revealed that the contact rate is mainly influenced by the social behaviour of the owner and to a lesser degree by his/her demographic characteristics including the area of residence, the breed size of dog and the age of the owner. In addition, ten Likert items measured on a 5‐point scale were designed to assess the practices towards potential cases of rabies among dog owners. The respondents (n = 972) achieved a mean score of 2.99 (out of a full score of 4) with a SD of 0.90 in responding to situations related to dog bite incidents and injury from stray cat scratches during dog walking. They achieved a higher score in responding to situations related to sighting a stray or wild animal during dog walking and situations related to non‐specific clinical signs of rabies and bite injuries from stray dogs or wild animals during dog walking with a mean of 3.70 (SD = 0.58) and 3.84 (SD = 0.34), respectively. The level of best practice was also proved to be significantly associated with the demographic characteristics of the dog owner.

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“…When rabies virus enters the human body, it spreads rapidly along the neural pathway and spreads to other organs, intrudes on various tissues and causes morbidity. Without timely and effective immunization, humans infected with rabies virus experience an incubation period of months to years before symptoms appear [2]. Once rabies virus reaches the central nervous system and causes symptoms, the course of disease usually does not exceed 10 days, and the mortality rate is as high as 100%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China

Song

et al. 2021

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies. Results Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers. Conclusions Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies before 2030.

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Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948–1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo

Cited by 21 publications

References 4 publications

Rabies-induced behavioural changes are key to rabies persistence in dog populations: Investigation using a network-based model

Rabies-induced behavioural changes are key to rabies persistence in dog populations: Investigation using a network-based model

Evaluating the contact rate between companion dogs during dog walking and the practices towards potential cases of rabies among dog owners in Japan

Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China

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