Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control

Sambo, Maganga; Hampson, Katie; Changalucha, Joel; Cleaveland, Sarah; Lembo, Tiziana; Lushasi, Kennedy; Mbunda, Eberhard; Mtema, Zacharia; Sikana, Lwitiko; Johnson, Paul C. D.

doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0090.v1

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 16 publications

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“…For , we center the distribution at the lower end of our estimated exposure incidence from the Moramanga District (42 exposures/100,000 persons), with a range applied assuming 1% rabies incidence in dogs (estimated across a range of human-to-dog ratios between -25) and that on average a rabid dog exposes 0.39 persons [4] (see Fig S4.1). As there is little data on dog population size and human exposure incidence in Madagascar [16,23], the range we used encompasses both observed human-to-dog ratios across Africa [14,24] and recent subnational estimates from Madagascar [25], and generates similar exposure incidences as observed previously across Africa [26,27].…”

Section: Modeling Human Rabies Deathsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: the current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar

Rajeev

Guis

Edosoa³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is highly effective at preventing human rabies deaths, however access to PEP is limited in many rabies endemic countries. The 2018 decision by Gavi to add human rabies vaccine to its investment portfolio should expand PEP availability and reduce rabies deaths. We explore how geographic access to PEP impacts the rabies burden in Madagascar and the potential benefits of improved provisioning. Methodology & Principal Findings: We use travel times to the closest clinic providing PEP (N=31) as a proxy for access. We find that travel times strongly predict reported bite incidence across the country. Using resulting estimates in an adapted decision tree framework we extrapolate rabies deaths and reporting and find that geographic access to PEP shapes burden sub-nationally. We estimate 960 human rabies deaths annually (95% Prediction Intervals (PI):790 - 1120), with PEP averting an additional 800 deaths (95% PI: 800 (95% PI: 640 - 970) each year. Under these assumptions, we find that expanding PEP to one clinic per district could reduce deaths by 19%, but even with all major health centers provisioning PEP (1733 additional clinics), we still expect substantial rabies mortality. Our quantitative estimates are most sensitive to assumptions of underlying rabies exposure incidence, but qualitative patterns of the impacts of travel times and expanded PEP access are robust. Conclusions & Significance: PEP is effective at preventing rabies deaths, and in the absence of strong surveillance, targeting underserved populations may be the most equitable way to provision PEP. Our framework could be used to guide PEP expansion and improve targeting of interventions in similar endemic settings where PEP access is geographically restricted. While better PEP access should save many lives, improved outreach and surveillance is needed and if rolled out with Gavi investment could catalyze progress towards achieving zero rabies deaths.

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Section: Modeling Human Rabies Deathsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: the current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar

Rajeev

Guis

Edosoa³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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Evaluation of Dynamics, Demography and Estimation of Free-Roaming Dog Population in Herat City, Afghanistan

Nasiry

Mazlan

Noordin

et al. 2023

Animals

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FRDs pose a serious challenge in countries where dog-bite-related rabies is endemic. Understanding the size and core demographic characteristics of FRD populations is essential for the planning and implementation of effective dog-population and canine-rabies-control programmes. The photographic sight–resight method was used to estimate the FRD population and evaluate its demographic characteristics in Herat city. A total of 928 free-roaming dogs (FRD) were identified through 3172 sightings, and the total free-roaming population was estimated to amount to 1821 (95% CI: 1565–2077), which led to the estimation of 10 dogs/km2 and the human-to-FRD ratio of 315:1. The male-to-female ratio was 2.85:1. The majority of them were healthy, with an ideal body score. Although the FRD density is considered low, it is still a concern and significant, since the majority of the people are unaware of the importance of canine populations in the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as rabies, and there were no specific measures for managing and controlling FRD populations. The information gained can be useful in animal health planning to design effective dog-population-control programmes, and for the planning of national rabies-prevention programmes.

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Reviewing Solutions of Scale for Canine Rabies Elimination in India

Gibson

Wallace

Rahman³

et al. 2020

TropicalMed

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Canine rabies elimination can be achieved through mass vaccination of the dog population, as advocated by the WHO, OIE and FAO under the ‘United Against Rabies’ initiative. Many countries in which canine rabies is endemic are exploring methods to access dogs for vaccination, campaign structures and approaches to resource mobilization. Reviewing aspects that fostered success in rabies elimination campaigns elsewhere, as well as examples of largescale resource mobilization, such as that seen in the global initiative to eliminate poliomyelitis, may help to guide the planning of sustainable, scalable methods for mass dog vaccination. Elimination of rabies from the majority of Latin America took over 30 years, with years of operational trial and error before a particular approach gained the broad support of decision makers, governments and funders to enable widespread implementation. The endeavour to eliminate polio now enters its final stages; however, there are many transferrable lessons to adopt from the past 32 years of global scale-up. Additionally, there is a need to support operational research, which explores the practicalities of mass dog vaccination roll-out and what are likely to be feasible solutions at scale. This article reviews the processes that supported the scale-up of these interventions, discusses pragmatic considerations of campaign duration and work-force size and finally provides an examples hypothetical resource requirements for implementing mass dog vaccination at scale in Indian cities, with a view to supporting the planning of pilot campaigns from which expanded efforts can grow.

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Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control

Cited by 6 publications

References 16 publications

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: the current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar

How geographic access to care shapes disease burden: the current impact of post-exposure prophylaxis and potential for expanded access to prevent human rabies deaths in Madagascar

Evaluation of Dynamics, Demography and Estimation of Free-Roaming Dog Population in Herat City, Afghanistan

Reviewing Solutions of Scale for Canine Rabies Elimination in India

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