Estimating the undetected infections in the Covid-19 outbreak by harnessing capture-recapture methods

Boehning, D; Rocchetti, Irene; Maruotti, Antonello; Holling, Heinz

doi:10.1101/2020.04.20.20072629

Cited by 41 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…As of 25 September 2020, there have been more than 32.1 million confirmed cases globally with more than 980,000 confirmed deaths (1). However, these numbers and the current mapping of disease spread present an incomplete picture of the outbreak largely due to the lack of adequate testing, particularly as undetected infected cases are the main source of disease spread (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7). It is estimated that the reported detection rate of actual COVID-19 cases is only 1-2% (5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Nash

Badea

Reddy

et al. 2020

Preprint

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High frequency screening of populations has been proposed as a strategy in facilitating control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we use computational modeling, coupled with clinical data from a rapid antigen test, to predict the impact of frequent rapid testing on COVID-19 spread and outcomes. Using patient nasopharyngeal swab specimens, we demonstrate that the sensitivity and specificity of the rapid antigen test compared to quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) are 84.7% and 85.7%, respectively; moreover, sensitivity correlates directly with viral load. Based on COVID-19 data from three regions in the United States and Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, we show that high frequency, strategic population-wide rapid testing, even at varied accuracy levels, diminishes COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at a fraction of the cost of nucleic acid detection via qRT-PCR. We propose large-scale antigen-based surveillance as a viable strategy to control SARS-CoV-2 spread and to enable societal re-opening.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Nash

Badea

Reddy

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As of 4 November 2020, there have been more than 47.6 million confirmed cases globally with more than million confirmed deaths 1 . However, these numbers and the current mapping of disease spread present an incomplete picture of the outbreak largely due to the lack of adequate testing, particularly as undetected infected cases are the main source of disease spread [2][3][4][5][6][7] . It is estimated that the reported detection rate of actual COVID-19 cases is only 1-2% 5 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Nash¹,

Badea²,

Reddy³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

High frequency screening of populations has been proposed as a strategy in facilitating control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use computational modeling, coupled with clinical data from rapid antigen tests, to predict the impact of frequent viral antigen rapid testing on COVID-19 spread and outcomes. Using patient nasal or nasopharyngeal swab specimens, we demonstrate that the sensitivity/specificity of two rapid antigen tests compared to quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) are 80.0%/91.1% and 84.7%/85.7%, respectively; moreover, sensitivity correlates directly with viral load. Based on COVID-19 data from three regions in the United States and São José do Rio Preto, Brazil, we show that high frequency, strategic population-wide rapid testing, even at varied accuracy levels, diminishes COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths at a fraction of the cost of nucleic acid detection via qRT-PCR. We propose large-scale antigen-based surveillance as a viable strategy to control SARS-CoV-2 spread and to enable societal re-opening.

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“…The quartile curves highlight more confidence in the tail of the data period when the value of R0 became less than 1, suggesting a reliable estimation in the sensitive domain (0,1). Combining the granularity of the SIDARTHE model with our fitting protocol allows us to estimate the undetected cases, who would need to be traced and tested in order to control the spread of the epidemic 10,11 . In agreement with the estimation of Pedersen et al 12 , we observed an initial ratio between undetected and detected cases of around 10:1 (Figure 2b).…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term analysis and long-term predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in a seasonality regime: the Italian case

Simoni

Fochesato

Reali

et al. 2020

Preprint

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As of July 14th, COVID-19 has caused in Italy 34.984 deaths and 243.344 infection cases. Strict lockdown policies were necessary to contain the first outbreak wave and prevent the Italian healthcare system from being overwhelmed by patients requiring intensive care. After the progressive reopening, predicting how the epidemic situation will evolve is urgent and fundamental to control any future outbreak and prevent a second wave. We defined a time-varying optimization procedure to repeatedly calibrate the SIDARTHE model with data up to June 24th. The computed parameter distributions allow us to robustly analyse how the epidemic situation evolved and outline possible future scenarios. Assuming a seasonal regime for COVID-19, we tested different lockdown policies. Our results suggest that an intermittent lockdown where six "open days" are allowed every other week may prevent a resurgent exponential outbreak and, at the same time, ease the societal burden of an extensive lockdown.

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Estimating the undetected infections in the Covid-19 outbreak by harnessing capture-recapture methods

Cited by 41 publications

References 12 publications

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Validating and modeling the impact of high-frequency rapid antigen screening on COVID-19 spread and outcomes

Short-term analysis and long-term predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in a seasonality regime: the Italian case

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