Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods

Frey, Holger; Machguth, Horst; Huss, Matthias; Huggel, Christian; Bajracharya, Samjwal Ratna; Bolch, Tobias; Kulkarni, Anil V.; Linsbauer, Andreas; Salzmann, Nadine; Stoffel, Markus

doi:10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014

Cited by 248 publications

(270 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…We compared the DEMs in stable off-glacier terrain and corrected the products accordingly (see Supplement). Using the GlabTop2 model (Frey et al, 2014) and the SRTM, we computed ice thickness for the glacier and inferred the bed topography. Details on the specific COSI-Corr settings as well as the imagery used are provided in the Supplement.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited – extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Glacier surges occur regularly in the Karakoram, but the driving mechanisms, their frequency and its relation to a changing climate remain unclear. In this study, we use digital elevation models and Landsat imagery in combination with high-resolution imagery from the Planet satellite constellation to quantify surface elevation changes and flow velocities during a glacier surge of the Khurdopin Glacier in 2017. Results reveal that an accumulation of ice volume above a clearly defined steep section of the glacier tongue since the last surge in 1999 eventually led to a rapid surge in May 2017 peaking with velocities above 5000 m a −1 , which were among the fastest rates globally for a mountain glacier. Our data reveal that velocities on the lower tongue increase steadily during a 4-year build-up phase prior to the actual surge only to then rapidly peak and decrease again within a few months, which confirms earlier observations with a higher frequency of available velocity data. The surge return period between the reported surges remains relatively constant at ca. 20 years. We show the potential of a combination of repeat Planet and ASTER imagery to (a) capture peak surge velocities that are easily missed by less frequent Landsat imagery, (b) observe surface changes that indicate potential drivers of a surge and (c) monitor hazards associated with a surge. At Khurdopin specifically, we observe that the surging glacier blocks the river in the valley and causes a lake to form, which may grow in subsequent years and could pose threats to downstream settlements and infrastructure in the case of a sudden breach.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited – extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

et al. 2018

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“…Glacier elevation changes were restricted by glacier thickness, i.e., no further reduction in glacier elevation was allowed if the accumulated elevation change exceeded the estimated glacier thickness. The glacier ice thickness distribution of each individual glacier was estimated based on the Glabtop2 model introduced by Linsbauer et al [2012] and modified by Frey et al [2014] using the filled SRTM DEM and the 1970s glacier inventory as input.…”

Section: Changes In Glacier Area and Elevationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

173

142

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Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period . This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

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“…Hence, by detecting overdeepenings in the glacier bed, sites of potential future lake formation and possible expansion of existing lakes can be identified. The GIS-based model GlabTop was developed for estimating ice thickness distribution and bed topography across the Swiss Alps Paul and Linsbauer 2012), and an improved version (GlabTop2) has subsequently been applied for large-scale modelling in the Himalaya (Frey et al 2014;Linsbauer et al 2016). GlabTop2 was implemented in the current study, requiring only a surface DEM and glacial outlines as input (see Sect.…”

Section: Future Lake Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk 'hotspots', illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from 'high' to 'very high'. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

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Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods

Cited by 248 publications

References 61 publications

Brief communication: The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited – extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

Brief communication: The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited – extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

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