Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Allen, Simon; Linsbauer, Andreas; Randhawa, Surjeet Singh; Huggel, Christian; Rana, Pooja; Kumari, Aparna

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x

Cited by 123 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…To do a systematic overview analysis with simple assessment of hazard potentials and vulnerabilities/exposures related to the possible new lakes would already be a major undertaking but could provide information about "hot spots" of risk cf. [43,44]. A corresponding priority list could then be derived for further and more detailed investigations such as field measurements and more complex modelling of potentially dangerous processes and process chains.…”

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confidence: 99%

Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

Colonia

Torres

Haeberli

et al. 2017

Water

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Global warming causes rapid shrinking of mountain glaciers. New lakes can, thus, form in the future where overdeepenings in the beds of still-existing glaciers are becoming exposed. Such new lakes can be amplifiers of natural hazards to downstream populations, but also constitute tourist attractions, offer new potential for hydropower, and may be of interest for water management. Identification of sites where future lakes will possibly form is, therefore, an essential step to initiate early planning of measures for risk reduction and sustainable use as part of adaptation strategies with respect to impacts from climate change. In order to establish a corresponding knowledge base, a systematic inventory of glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes was compiled for the still glacierized parts of the Peruvian Andes using the 2003-2010 glacier outlines from the national glacier inventory and the SRTM DEM from the year 2000. The resulting inventory contains 201 sites with overdeepened glacier beds >1 ha (10 4 m 2 ) where notable future lakes could form, representing a total volume of about 260 million m 3 . A rough classification was assigned for the most likely formation time of the possible new lakes. Such inventory information sets the stage for analyzing sustainable use and hazard/risk for specific basins or regions.

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confidence: 99%

Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

Colonia

Torres

Haeberli

et al. 2017

Water

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“…or buried ice melting (Allen et al, 2016;Frey et al, 2010;Haeberli et al, 2016). The general assumptions of future climatic conditions, glacier retreat, and altered melt rates are supported by the glacier mass balance model (Sect.…”

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confidence: 95%

“…Nevertheless, inspiration for this assessment is drawn from Allen et al (2016), Frey et al (2010), and Huggel et al (2004). We hold the opinion that hazard assessments based solely on remotely sensed data are appropriate when applied over a large area and as a first step.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Remote sensing has proved to be a very useful tool in the field of environmental studies and is the basis for many hazard assessments, e.g. Bolch et al (2008), Allen et al (2016), McKillop and Clague (2007), and Huggel et al (2004).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Allen et al, 2016). This trigger (including ice avalanche, landslide, and rockfall) is easy to assess.…”

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Development of glacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst hazard at Adygine glacier complex, Northern Tien Shan

Falátková

Šobr

Jánský

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Formation and development of glacial lakes in mountain regions is one of the consequences of glacier recession. 10Such lakes may drain partially or completely when the stability of their dam is disturbed. We presented a case study from Central-Asian mountain range of Tien Shan, a north-oriented tributary valley Adygine, where a glacier retreat resulted in formation of several generations of lakes. The aim of this study was to analyse past development of different types of glacial lakes influenced by the same glacier, to project site's future development, and to evaluate the hazard of individual lakes with an outlook for expected future change. We addressed the problem with a combination of methods, namely bathymetric, 15 geodetic, and geophysical on-site survey, satellite image and DEM analysis, and modelling of glacier runoff evolution. Based on the case of glacial lakes of varied age and type, we demonstrate the significance of glacier ice in lake's development. Lake 3, which is in contact with glacier terminus, has changed rapidly over the last decade, expanding both in area and depth and increasing its volume more than 13 times (7 800 m 3 to 106 000 m 3 ). Hydrological connections and routing of glacier meltwater proved to be an important factor as well, since most lakes in the region are drained by subsurface channels. Within the hazard 20 evaluation of lakes, we highlighted the importance of field data which can provide crucial information on lake stability. In our case, the understanding of site's hydrological system and its regime helped to categorise Lake 2 into low outburst hazard, while Lake 1 and Lake 3 were labelled as medium hazard lakes. Further development of the site will be driven mainly by rising air temperature and increasingly negative glacier mass balance. All three scenarios predict a significant glacier area decrease by 2050, specifically leaving 73.2 % (A1B), 62.3 % (A2), and 55.6 % (B1) of the 2012 glacier extent. The glacier retreat will be 25 accompanied by changes in glacier runoff with first peak expected around the year 2020.

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Testing the performance of ice thickness models to estimate the formation of potential future glacial lakes in Austria

Otto

Prasicek

Binder

et al. 2021

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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The emergence of glacial lakes is a significant consequence of global climate change in high mountain regions. Recent developments in ice thickness modelling combined with high-resolution glacier surface data led to the generation of modelling approaches to simulate the ice-free bedrock topography below current glaciers and to detect potential glacier bed overdeepenings (GBO) that may form into future lakes. We simulated the subglacial topography in the Austrian Alps using two different ice thickness models. Glaciers in the study area differ significantly from glaciers investigated in previous studies on potential future lakes because of their in general small size and location often restricted to cirques. The aim of this study is to estimate the number and location of potential future lakes in Austria. We tested the performance of ice thickness models for modelling of potential future lakes in an environment dominated by mountain glaciers that are under high stress of climate change.Modelling results are compared with lakes that evolved since the modelling periods and with data on subglacial topography derived from geophysical surveys. Results show significant differences in model performance concerning the total ice volume and the number of simulated GBOs. The number and total area of the modelled GBOs is overestimated, compared with the number of lakes that have evolved in the past. Most GBOs are simulated for valley type glaciers, even though most glaciers are mountain types. This does not match with the location of existing glacial lakes that are dominantly found in cirques. We ascertain that this modelling approach performs better on large valley type glaciers and less well on mountain glaciers. Intersecting the modelling runs indicates that up to 42 new lakes may form within 23 glaciers in Austria covering a total area of 2 km 2 .

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Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Cited by 123 publications

References 58 publications

Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

Development of glacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst hazard at Adygine glacier complex, Northern Tien Shan

Testing the performance of ice thickness models to estimate the formation of potential future glacial lakes in Austria

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