Estimation Method of Contribution of Cause-Specific Mortality to Life Expectancy

Abstract

An increase in life expectancy is one of the main strategic objectives declared by the Russian Federation. Thus, an understanding of how this objective can be achieved with available recourses in the most efficient way is warranted. We propose an automated method for estimating the contribution of cause-specific mortaLity to Life expectancy. To iLLustrate the proposed method, we used the data from primary mortality databases in the Krasnoyarsk region - one of the largest federal subjects of the Russian Federation - and the data on the average population of the of the region from 1999 to 2018 from the Federal state statistics office in Krasnoyarsk, Khakassia Republic and Tyva Republic. A computer program "DeathAnaLytics" has been developed by the authors for automated calculation of the contribution of cause-specific mortality to Life expectancy. The main idea behind is to calculate an integral indicator that takes into account both the contribution of deaths from various causes and the absolute number of these deaths. The paper presents the stages of calculation, interpretation and a practical example. The use of the methodology presented in the article aLLows to identify the causes of death that have the greatest impact contribution to reduction of Life expectancy, which in turn aLLows to identify targets for pubLic heaLth measures that wiLL most effectiveLy increase Life expectancy of the popuLation.

Predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth of the population in the Russian Federation based on scenario changes in socio-hygienic determinants using an artificial neural network

“…В научной литературе представлен ряд подходов по оценке влияния факторов среды обитания на показатель ОПЖ с учетом смертности населения, таких как: построение классических таблиц смертности [10,11]; оценка элиминированных резервов [12]; компонентный анализ смертности [13,14]; метод оценки нагрузки смертности на ОПЖ населения [15]. Также распространен эконометрический анализ влияния ограниченного количества факторов (чаще экономической природы) с построением корреляционно-регрессионных моделей взаимосвязи между ОПЖ и факторами среды обитания с использованием методов иерархии и кластеризации субъектов РФ, а также при межстрановой оценке [16][17][18][19][20].…”

Predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth of the population in the Russian Federation based on scenario changes in socio-hygienic determinants using an artificial neural network

“…We can find several approaches to estimating influence exerted by environmental factors on LEB, population mortality taken into account, in scientific literature. They include creating conventional mortality tables [10,11]; estimates of eliminated reserves [12]; component analysis of mortality [13,14]; assessment of contribution made by mortality to LEB [15]. In addition, it is quite common to use econometric analysis of influence exerted by a limited number of factors (more often economic ones).…”