Estimation of Adult Mortality in Developing Countries Using an Application Based on the Variable-r Method

Revised Fixed-base Model for Estimation of Adult Mortality in Developing Countries

“…Nwogu and Okoro [1] proposed a Fixed-base model for estimation of adult mortality in developing countries based on the concept of variable-r method. The model proposed by Nwogu and Okoro [1] for estimation of expectation of life at age x ( x e ) an index for measuring adult mortality is (2.2)…”

“…is the age-specific growth rate, Ln is log base e . For the open age interval (   ), Nwogu and Okoro [1] applied an expression by Kpedekpo [8] for the estimate of the number of person-years lived from  years and above as…”

“…As the level of demographic parameters (especially mortality) of a country improves; the ranking of the country on health issues increases among the committee of nations. Among the components of population change, mortality stands out because it affects some age distributions directly and others indirectly Nwogu and Okoro [1]. The focus of this present study is on mortality at age five years and above (denoted as adult mortality in most intercensal methods).…”

“…The direct estimation of adult mortality in many developing countries is difficult due to unreliable or incomplete civil registration systems. In most developing countries, because of the limitations of civil registration systems, demographic parameters are derived from censuses and survey data ─ these two sources are often defective, Nwogu and Okoro, [1]; Okoro [2]; Okoro and Nwogu [3]. Hence, the dependence on indirect techniques for the estimation of adult mortality in developing countries.…”

“…Derivation of adult mortality from two census age distributions is an alternative means explored by most developing countries to overcome or augment her ineffective civil registration systems. The intercensal survival methods still relevant are those that assume arbitrary intercensal period such as Preston integrated method [4], Preston-Bennett method [5], United Nations Synthetic Survival Ratio [6], Fixed-base model proposed by Nwogu and Okoro [1], etc. The Fixed-base model and Preston-Bennett method [5] are similar and do not make reference to life tables.…”