This paper focuses on the estimation of adult mortality in Nigeria. The general objective is to obtain adult mortality levels for Nigeria which may be relevant in assessing the level of development and the progress of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in that country. Census-based methods were applied to the 1991 and 2006 adjusted population census by age and sex to estimate adult mortality. The results of the study suggest that adult males in Nigeria have a higher life expectancy than their female counterparts in almost all age groups. At age 5-9, the life expectancy from the methods applied was below 60 years. The consequences of low life expectancy among adults include the early marriage of young girls, an increasing orphanhood burden, and high numbers of out-of-school children, which may hamper the achievement of SDGs in the country. Given that there is no consensus yet on the best approach for estimating adult mortality in developing countries, we recommend that censusbased methods should be used for this task.
This paper examines the adjustment of reported populations in Nigerian censuses. The ultimate objective is to provide reliable base populations which may be used to provide improved estimates of demographic parameters. Mathematical methods were applied to obtain adjusted data from the reported populations by sex and age in single years and five-year age groups in the 1963, 1991, and 2006 Nigerian censuses. Thereafter, the adjusted data were subjected to re-evaluation and used to obtain estimates of demographic parameters. Re-evaluation of the adjusted data shows improved quality of the adjusted data as well as of the estimates of some demographic parameters. It is therefore recommended that the adjusted data be used for estimating demographic parameters and population projection among others.Keywords: Adjustment of age and sex data, accuracy index, age misreporting, digit preference, age exaggeration, base population.
RésuméCe document examine l'ajustement de la population rapportée dans des recensements nigérians. L'objectif final est de fournir les bases populations dignes de confiance qui peuvent être employées pour donner des évaluations améliorées des paramètres démographiques. Des méthodes mathématiques ont été appliquées pour obtenir les données ajusté des populations rapportées par sexe et par âge dans les seules anneés et de la tranche de cinq ans dans les recensements nigérians de 1963, 1991 et 2006. Ensuite, les données ajustées ont été soumises à la réévaluation et utilisées pour obtenir des évaluations des paramètres démographiques. Les résultats de la réévaluation des données ajustées prouvent que les qualités des données aussi bien que des évaluations ajustées de quelques paramètres démographiques se sont améliorées. Il est recommandé alors, que les données ajustées soient employées pour l'évaluation des paramètres et de la projection de population démographiques parmi d'autres.
This present study has discussed the levels and trends of under-five mortality in sub-Sahara Africa. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality using Summary of Birth Histories (SBH) of currently married women which may provide valuable information for assessing the interventions and measures already in place to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (especially goal 3). The Trussell variant which is the modified version of the Brass model was adopted to derive under-five mortality from SBH of currently married women. The result shows that the index for under-five mortality ( ) implied by the north family of the Coale–Demeny model life tables ranges from 65.8 deaths per 1000 live births in Zambia (2018 ZDHS) to as high as 132.9 deaths per 1000 live births in Nigeria (2018 NDHS) respectively. The average estimate of under-five mortality for the countries is about 107.9 deaths per 1000 live births for currently married women and 108.4 deaths per 1000 live births for the entire women in the surveys. While the average probability of a newborn baby surviving to age 5 is about 0.8921 for currently married women that of the entire women is about 0.8915.
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