Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

Orimolade, Adekunle Peter; Haver, Sverre; Gudmestad, Ove T.

doi:10.1016/j.marstruc.2016.05.004

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…On the other hand, the same studies have shown that the change in extreme wave heights is marginal. The areas where the change is more significant are those of the northern parts of Barents Sea, Kara, and Chukchi Seas, whereas, in areas where the sea is already ice free during September and October, like the North Atlantic and the main part of the Barents Sea, extreme waves would be less frequently witnessed and great changes in extreme wave heights could not be expected [7]. In conclusion, the eastern Arctic regions and areas close to the north Canadian coasts will be influenced most by the absence of the ice [6].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action, and Permafrost Melting

Kostopoulos¹,

Yitzhak²,

Gudmestad³

2019

Arctic Studies - A Proxy for Climate Change

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It is broadly recognized that the Arctic area has become highly popular for hosting new activities and new infrastructure. This is due to the combination of the need of exploring new areas to satisfy the ever increased energy demand and also the impact of climate change that has created paths for increased trading and maritime activities. Presently, the Arctic environment poses new challenges and unknown hazards, which are considered unpredictable due to the uncertainties of the emerging phenomena. In this chapter, the effects caused by the higher temperatures in the Arctic region on the increased height of waves and storm surges and the extended erosion of the Arctic coastline are examined and presented. This unpredictability is partly due to the dynamic behavior of the Arctic environment and the annual fluctuations of the permanent ice of the Arctic Ocean. Reduced ice coverage, especially during the fall period, creates longer available sea distances for waves to be developed. As extreme case scenario, the associated consequences for the design wave height on a totally ice-free sea are studied. A comparison between the heights of the waves which are generated by the longest possible fetches and those estimated from today's ice limit situation is made based on coastal engineering methods. Further to this, more open sea areas also allow for increased storm surge heights. In the chapter, it is also shown how the decreased ice coverage has an influence on the coastal erosion phenomenon, which is not only enhanced due to the evolving wave dynamics but also thermodynamics and sediment dynamics. The presented results show significant changes of the characteristic wave heights and strong increase of the pace of the coastal erosion. Based on these observations, the authors of this chapter want to stress the challenges that such future conditions in the Arctic area will pose to any Arctic operations, nearby infrastructures and human activities in the area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action, and Permafrost Melting

Kostopoulos¹,

Yitzhak²,

Gudmestad³

2019

Arctic Studies - A Proxy for Climate Change

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“…After fitting the parameters to the candidate distribution for each approach, estimates of the significant wave height were calculated for 50-and 100-year return periods by Equations (6), (8), and (10). Additionally, values were calculated also for the 23-year return period, which was equal to the duration of the underlying database, thus rendering the calculated extreme value comparable to the maximum recorded H s .…”

Section: Extreme Significant Wave Height Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the POT approach, the average number of peaks per year (calculated as 4.3 peaks-per-year) used in Equations (10) and (11) for extrapolation created an assumption that storms occurred uniformly spaced in time, which is obviously not true. The variance of the between-storms duration period could be reported in future work to illustrate this uncertainty source.…”

Section: Tr [Years]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties of Estimating Extreme Significant Wave Height for Engineering Applications Depending on the Approach and Fitting Technique—Adriatic Sea Case Study

Katalinić

Parunov

2020

JMSE

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Studies on the extrapolation of extreme significant wave height, based on long-term databases, are extensively covered in literature. An engineer, working in the field of naval architecture, marine engineering, or maritime operation planning, when tackling the problem of extreme wave prediction, would typically follow relevant codes and standards. Currently, authorities in the field of offshore operation within its guidelines propose several methods: the initial-distribution, extreme value, and peak-over threshold approaches. Furthermore, for each proposed method, different mathematical fitting techniques are applicable to optimize the candidate distribution parameters: the least-square method, the method of moments, and the maximum likelihood method. A comprehensive analysis was done to determine the difference in the results depending on the choice of method and fitting technique. All combinations were tested on a long-term database for a location in the Adriatic Sea. The variability of the results and trends of extreme wave height estimates for long return periods are presented, and the limitations of certain methods and techniques are noted.

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“…A comprehensive understanding of the ocean surface waves arising from extreme weather conditions is of great interest to coastal and ocean engineers and oceanographers. Many studies about predicting, simulating, or hindcasting typhoon-generated storm waves and storm surges have been carried out through numerical models because wave buoys cannot be deployed throughout an entire marine area [10][11][12][13][14]. A third-generation spectral wind wave model is mainly driven by wind fields and has been widely used to predict, simulate, and hindcast wave heights.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

Hsiao

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) was used for this case study because it is the most intense typhoon that made landfall in Taiwan in the past decade. Winds extracted from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and ERA5 datasets and merged with a parametric typhoon model using two hybrid techniques served as the meteorological conditions for driving a coupled wave-circulation model. The computed significant wave heights were compared with the observations recorded at three wave buoys in the eastern waters of Taiwan. Model performance in terms of significant wave height was also investigated by employing the CFSV2 winds under varying spatial and temporal resolutions. The results of the numerical experiments reveal that the simulated storm wave heights tended to decrease significantly due to the lower spatial resolution of the hourly winds from the CFSV2 dataset; however, the variations in the storm wave height simulations were less sensitive to the temporal resolution of the wind field. Introducing the combination of the CFSV2 and the parametric typhoon winds greatly improved the storm wave simulations, and similar phenomena can be found in the exploitation of the ERA5 dataset blended into the parametric wind field. The overall performance of the hybrid winds derived from ERA5 was better than that from the CFSV2, especially in the outer region of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016).

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Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

Cited by 34 publications

References 13 publications

Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action, and Permafrost Melting

Coastal Erosion Due to Decreased Ice Coverage, Associated Increased Wave Action, and Permafrost Melting

Uncertainties of Estimating Extreme Significant Wave Height for Engineering Applications Depending on the Approach and Fitting Technique—Adriatic Sea Case Study

Numerical Simulation of Large Wave Heights from Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) in the Eastern Waters of Taiwan

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