Estimation of Passenger Load for Urban Passenger Transport on the Route

Abstract

This article deals with the quality of passenger service of urban passenger transport of large cities and megalopolises. The quality of passenger service is estimated mainly by the passenger load, that is the number of passengers in a vehicle. The main content of the article is a description of the method of exponential forecasting used to forecast passenger load estimation on the public transport route with high passenger traffic and low predictability of passenger flow behavior. In order to assess the possibility of using analytical methods to predict the passenger load, it is suggested to forecast the load at a critical stop of the route.

From Traffic Congestion to Sustainable Mobility: A Case Study of Public Transport in Odesa, Ukraine

“…These findings are in line with the results of Bogumil and Duque [15], Currie and Delbosc [99], Enoch et al [48], Kos et al [100], Shelat et al [101], Malandri et al [95], and Anable [102]. According to Anable [102], different psychological clusters must be served in various ways to optimize influence on choice behavior, and each cluster represents a combination of preferences and attitudes.…”

“…Urbanization is continuously increasing, which poses numerous challenges (e.g., congestion, demand for parking space, and longer commutes) to the transport system that must be addressed [12][13][14]. Public passenger transport performs an important role in the social infrastructure of a city and regions as a whole [1,15,16]. The rise in the number of privately owned vehicles has resulted in an overloaded street-road network in many cities, reducing the mobility of the population due to traffic congestion, increasing road safety costs, and harming the environment [17,18].…”

“…Therefore, the task of increasing attractiveness and increasing demand for public passenger transport is acute for transport sector designers [19]. Proper management of passenger traffic on routes enables transport companies to meet people's transport needs while making a profit [7,15]. Travel databases provide managers with useful insights about the variability of flow across time, including short and medium-to-long-term trends (such as seasonality) and client preferences and habits.…”

“…The optimal share of the traffic system with the expansion of the urban population is only achievable through the acquisition of technology, organization, adaptation, and complementarity of transport systems in meeting transport demand [23]. The development of urban transport modes has a direct and significant impact on user comfort, and understanding the credibility of the system and traffic control [15]. Note that a transport system needs to be reliable, punctual, and regular.…”

“…The perceptually quality features contain comfort, safety, convenience, and aesthetics. In order to improve the quality of PT services, automated urban PT control systems are designed to manage and regulate passenger transport on urban paths [1,7,13,15,31]. Automated transport is a system in which the driver of a vehicle (aircraft, train, ship, bus, car, etc.)…”