This article deals with the quality of passenger service of urban passenger transport of large cities and megalopolises. The quality of passenger service is estimated mainly by the passenger load, that is the number of passengers in a vehicle. The main content of the article is a description of the method of exponential forecasting used to forecast passenger load estimation on the public transport route with high passenger traffic and low predictability of passenger flow behavior. In order to assess the possibility of using analytical methods to predict the passenger load, it is suggested to forecast the load at a critical stop of the route.