Estimation of photovoltaic waste spatio-temporal distribution by 2060 in the context of carbon neutrality

Abstract

In recent decades, large-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) power leads to management challenges for recycling PV module waste in China.With the growth of waste PV volumes, it is necessary to figure out the spatio-temporal distribution of PV waste at the provincial level. Based on China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060, six development pathways of PV installed capacity are proposed to identify in-use stocks of PV capacity. In particular, we developed the retired flow estimation model for PV modules that is constructed by three PV module degradation scenarios. The results show that a relatively large scale of PV waste will be started to emerge in China by 2030 and the cumulative waste is expected to reach 1100 ∼ 1450 GW by 2060. Our findings also indicate an unequal distribution of PV waste across regions and the highest PV waste volumes by 2060 is the East China region at 31.4%, with Shandong (8.99%) and Hebei(8.65%) ranking as the top provinces. This prospective research will help the PV industry plan the location and capacity of recovery facilities at an appropriate time to advance toward a more resource efficient and circular economy.

Analysis for End-of-Life Solar Panel Generations by Renewable Energy Supply towards Carbon Neutrality in South Korea

“…The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency's Solar Power Systems Program (IEA-PVPS) estimated waste volumes using the Weibull distribution in both early and regular loss scenarios [28]. In a subsequent research, same Weibull distribution approach was used to predict solar panel waste generation in China, Belgium, Australia, Spain, and Korea [29][30][31][32][33]. In Kim and Park's analysis, the yearly supply quantity of solar energy needed to meet the government's 36.5 GW target for solar power supply by 2030 was expected to vary for each scenarios [33].…”

Prediction of scrap volume and recyclable resource potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation equipment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

“…给模型 [5,6,10] 和动态寿命 (Weibull 寿命分布) 为基础的 市场供给 A 模型 [11][12][13][14] ； 在研究内容上， 主要为光伏报 废量 [12,13] 和废弃物资源含量 [10, [14][15][16] 的研究， 部分学者 还研究了其资源的经济价值 [6] 、 资源的供需关系 [11,17] 等。梳理文献后发现， 研究尚存在一定的局限性： ①光伏类型选取不精细。在光伏类型的选择上， 除 Domínguez 等 [6] 将研究对象限定为 1 兆瓦以上地面光 伏以外， 其他研究多数对光伏类型不作区分 [11][12][13][14] ； ② 报废光伏系统设备选择不全面。除 Domínguez 等 [5,6] 对整套光伏系统 (光伏组件和安装系统 BOS) 进行 研究以外， 其他研究基本只针对光伏组件进行研 究 [11][12][13][14]18] ； ③缺乏区域尺度的研究。在研究尺度的选 择上， 除 Liu [12] 和 Wang 等 [13] 的光伏报废量研究分别 涵盖省级和城市尺度以外， 其他研究多为国家尺 度 11,[15][16][17] ， 鲜有区域尺度的研究。 京津冀地区作为中国三大城市群之一， 是中国 经济增长的重要引擎 [19] ， 且该地区的太阳能资源位 于全国前列 [20] ； 同时， "十四五" 期间京津冀地区为实 现双碳目标制定了多项光伏发展规划 [21][22][23] 其他辅助设备 [25,26] 。光伏组件将太阳能转换为电 能， 是光伏发电系统的核心 [4] 。为确保光伏组件能 接收到最大的太阳能辐射、 提高光伏组件效率以及 固定作用， 光伏组件底部会装有支架， 多为铝合金 材质 [5] 量、 报废量和累计装机量有如下等式 [27]…”