Estimation of rainfall and streamflow missing data under uncertainty for Nile basin headwaters: the case of Ghba catchments

Hiben, Mehari Gebreyohannes; Awoke, Admasu Gebeyehu; Ashenafi, Abraha Adugna

doi:10.1080/23249676.2023.2230892

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Water demand forecasting is a difficult task, because data is often limited and there are many variables that could affect demand [3,23,24]. For example, the data may be inaccurate because of the nature and quality of the data, and the variables that are thought to affect water demand can be very different from one forecast to the next [25][26][27]. Additionally, the forecast horizon and periodicities can also vary.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Gebreyohannes Hiben,

Gebeyehu Awoke,

Adugna Ashenafi

2024

Int. Res. J. multidiscip. Technovation

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This paper aims to quantify the subbasin’s potable water supply demand forecast from 2023 to 2050 under various scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. The variability of the climate and the resulting problems with urbanization threaten the availability of water resources, especially in less developed countries like Ethiopia. Thus, the main objective of this study is showing the necessary to determine the amount of water needed in advance, in order to comply with the availability of water resources within a specified future period under different scenarios. Our indicator-based approach used a multicriteria decision-making technique. Accordingly, several important variables were considered, including climatological, anthropological, demographic, socioeconomic, and economic variables, in addition to water engineering-related factors (e.g. Water losses). The method also considered a number of factors, such as unexpected and extreme temperature changes, and forecasting factors studied by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy. The projected population in the subbasin is estimated at 2.52 million, so the total projected water supply demand i.e., for domestic, non-domestic, industrial, commercial, public, and institutional is approximately 126.53 MCM/yr by 2050. Our results revealed how changes in both climatic and socioeconomic factors strongly influence future water resource system performance, and this will help the water services provider better prioritize the refurbishment of existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, and more importantly, manage the subbasin effectively by introducing resilient adaptation options.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Gebreyohannes Hiben,

Gebeyehu Awoke,

Adugna Ashenafi

2024

Int. Res. J. multidiscip. Technovation

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“…to properly characterize the catchments properties using target parameter prediction depending on data input [20,21]. Furthermore, models that have good measured and simulated data agreement can be applied to a variety of purposes, including assessing the effects of changing input factors like climate change, land-use/land cover (LULC) change, intervention of structures in the river system, and so on which will give a chance to set scenarios and analysis for different adaptation options [22,[23][24][25]. Different regions have used hydrological models, ranging from conceptual to fully physically based distributed models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Modeling and Evaluation of Water Balance Over the Complex Topography of Nile Basin Headwaters: The Case of Ghba River, Northern Ethiopia

Hiben,

Awoke,

Ashenafi

2023

Int. Res. J. multidiscip. Technovation

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Water resource evaluation, management, and conservation at the local, national, and international levels depend on an accurate understanding of the hydrological processes. In data-poor environments and topographically complicated areas like the Ghba subbasin in the headwaters of the Nile River, the function of hydrological models is crucial. The primary goal of this study is to use the WEAP model to simulate the hydrology of the Ghba basin. This is because recent hydrological behaviour has changed significantly and resulted in a serious water deficit. The minimal satisfactory performance limit for the monthly stream flow variable was strongly attained by the multi-variable calibration scenario (R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.82, IA= 0.80 RSR = 0.87 and PBIAS = 9 % for calibration scenario; and R2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.81, IA= 0.70 RSR = 0.80 and PBIAS = 11.5 % for validation scenario). Evapotranspiration makes up 63.4% of the water balance, according to the model simulation, while surface runoff, interflow, baseflow and groundwater recharge accounting for 11.1 %, 11.8%, 5.4% and 8.3 %, respectively. The simulated average annual streamflow at the subbasin outlet is 16.33 m3/s. The simulated monthly minimum flow occurs in January with an average flow of 1.78 m3/s and a coefficient of dispersion of 0.45. Maximum flows occur in July and August, with an average flow of 53.57 m3/s and a coefficient of dispersion of 0.19. The main rainy season was shown to have a larger spatial distribution of simulated runoff, and the average annual recharge value is 53.5 mm. The study's conclusions indicated that both surface water harvesting and groundwater extraction might be used for reliable water distribution to the subbasin's continuously increasing sectoral water demand.

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Estimation of rainfall and streamflow missing data under uncertainty for Nile basin headwaters: the case of Ghba catchments

Cited by 2 publications

References 68 publications

Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

Hydrological Modeling and Evaluation of Water Balance Over the Complex Topography of Nile Basin Headwaters: The Case of Ghba River, Northern Ethiopia

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