Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Himalayas and its Vicinity from Complete Data Files

Shanker, D.; Sharma, M. L.

doi:10.1007/s000240050154

Cited by 56 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The conditional probabilities and seismic hazards of future earthquakes can be evaluated with the help of a number of statistical models of failure time (ELLSWORTH et al, 1999). The seismic hazard assessment in the Indian subcontinent has been carried out by a number of researchers (AUDEN, 1959;GAUR and CHAUHAN, 1968;KAILA and RAO, 1979;KHATTRI et al, 1984;SHANKER and SHARMA, 1998;RAM, 1997, 1999;SHANKER and PAPADIMITRIOU, 2004;TRIPATHI, 2006 and others).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Gujarat and Adjoining Region of India

Yadav

Tripathi

Rastogi

et al. 2008

Pure appl. geophys.

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The Gujarat and adjoining region falls under all four seismic zones V, IV, III and II of the seismic zoning map of India, and is one of the most seismically prone intracontinental regions of the world. It has experienced two large earthquakes of magnitude M w 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and 2001, respectively and several moderate earthquakes during the past two centuries. In the present study, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes of M C 5.0 has been estimated during a specified time interval for different elapsed times on the basis of observed time intervals between earthquakes using three stochastic models namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. A complete earthquake catalogue has been used covering the time interval of 1819 to 2006. The whole region has been divided into three major seismic regions (Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh) on the basis of seismotectonics and geomorphology of the region. The earthquake hazard parameters have been estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to test the suitability of models in three different regions. It was found that the Weibull model fits well with the actual data in Saurashtra and Kachchh regions, whereas Lognormal model fits well in Mainland Gujarat. The mean intervals of occurrence of earthquakes are estimated as 40.455, 20.249 and 13.338 years in the Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh region, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur at a time later than some specific time from the last earthquake) for the earthquakes of M C 5.0 reaches 0.9 after about 64 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra, about 49 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 29 years from the last earthquake (2006) in the Kachchh region. The conditional probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur during some specific time interval after a certain elapsed time from last earthquake) is also estimated and it reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 during the time interval of about 57 to 66 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra region, 31 to 51 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 21 to 28 years from the last earthquake (2006) in Kachchh region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Gujarat and Adjoining Region of India

Yadav

Tripathi

Rastogi

et al. 2008

Pure appl. geophys.

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“…There have been several efforts to estimate seismicity parameters for Indian region based on both the historical as well as the instrumental earthquake catalog (Shanker and Sharma 1998;Iyengar and Ghosh 2004;Raghukanth and Iyengar 2006;Jaiswal and Sinha 2007;Raghukant 2010). These researchers focused on some part of India or used different methodology for homogenization of catalog as well as estimation of seismicity parameters.…”

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confidence: 98%

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

Kolathayar¹,

Sitharam²,

Vipin

2011

Nat Hazards

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An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0-45°N and 60-105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earthquakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website

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“…Various approaches have been proposed for the evaluation of probability of occurrence and return periods of large earthquakes (KAILA et al, 1972;YEGULAP and KUO, 1974;LOMNITZ, 1974;SHANKER and SINGH, 1997). Seismic hazard studies of different tectonic regions have been carried out by various workers SELLEVOLL, 1989, 1992;KHATTRI et al, 1984;GUPTA and SRIVASTAVA, 1990;SHANKAR and SHARMA, 1998;SHARMA and SHANKAR, 2001;TSAPANOS et al, 2001;HAMDACHE and RETIEF, 2001). The available earthquake catalogs usually contain two types of information: firstly, macroseismic observations of major seismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years, and secondly, complete instrumental data for relatively short periods of time (the last 50 years at the most).…”

Section: Seismic Hazard Assessment -Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

Sharma

Wason

Dimri

2003

Pure and Applied Geophysics

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An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate k, b value and maximum probable earthquake M max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.

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Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Himalayas and its Vicinity from Complete Data Files

Cited by 56 publications

References 20 publications

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Gujarat and Adjoining Region of India

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard in Gujarat and Adjoining Region of India

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

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