Estimation of Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID–19 in Romania and Pakistan

Ozair, Muhammad; Hussain, Takasar; Hussain, M.; Awan, Aziz Ullah; Băleanu, Dumitru

doi:10.1101/2020.05.02.20088989

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…COVID-19 is known as a highly contagious disease and its transmission rate, β, varies from country to country, according to the density of the country and movements of its population. Ozair et al [17] assumed β to be [0.198 − 0.594] per day for Romania, and [0.097 − 0.291] per day for Pakistan. Further, Kuniya [10] estimated β as 0.26 (95%CI, 2.4 − 2.8).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

Zine

Boukhouima

Lotfi

et al. 2020

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

Zine

Boukhouima

Lotfi

et al. 2020

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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Extraction of optical solitons in birefringent fibers for Biswas-Arshed equation via extended trial equation method

Tahir

Awan

Abro

2021

Nonlinear Engineering

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This article obtains optical solitons to the Biswas-Arshed equation for birefringent fibers with higher order dispersions and in the absence of four-wave mixing terms, in a media with Kerr type nonlinearity. Optical dark, singular and bright soliton solutions are articulated by applying an imaginative integration technique, the extended trial equation scheme. Various additional traveling wave solutions are produced with this integration technique, which include rational solutions, Jacobi elliptic function solutions and periodic singular solutions. From the mathematical analysis some constraints are recognized that ensure the actuality of solitons.

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Prediction of COVID-19 spread with models in different patterns: A case study of Russia

Cetin,

Araz

2024

Open Physics

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This study deals with a mathematical model that examines the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This model has been handled with different processes such as deterministic, stochastic, and deterministic–stochastic. First of all, a detailed analysis is presented for the deterministic model, which includes the positivity of the solution, the basic reproduction number, the disease, and endemic equilibrium points. Then, for the stochastic model, we investigate under which conditions, the solution exists and is unique. Later, model is reconsidered with the help of the piecewise derivative, which can combine deterministic and stochastic processes. Numerical simulations are presented for all these processes. Finally, the model has been modified with the rate indicator function. The model presenting these four different situations is compared with the real data in Russia. According to the results obtained from these situations, the model that is obtained by adding the rate indicator function predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Russia more accurately. Thus, it is concluded that the model with the rate indicator function presents more realistic approach than the previous ones.

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Estimation of Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID–19 in Romania and Pakistan

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

Extraction of optical solitons in birefringent fibers for Biswas-Arshed equation via extended trial equation method

Prediction of COVID-19 spread with models in different patterns: A case study of Russia

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