Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

Kriaučiūnienė, Jūratė; Jakimavičius, Darius; Šarauskienė, Diana; Kaliatka, Tadas

doi:10.1007/s00477-012-0608-7

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The relationship curves between the integrated risk of the entire flood and the selected safe water levels under the scenario of spillway failure are drawn in Figure 14. The distribution parameters of the stochastic water levels of Shuangjiangkou reservoir are also calculated according to the method proposed, and then we set different safe water levels for the reservoir and calculate the corresponding risks according to Equations (9) and (10). The relationship curves between the integrated risk of the entire flood and the selected safe water levels under the scenario of spillway failure are drawn in Figure 14.…”

Section: The Results For the Scenario Of Spillway Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reservoir water level errors follow normal distributions at the significance level of 0.05. We set different safe water levels for the reservoir and calculate the corresponding risks according to Equations (9) and (10). The relationship curve between the integrated risk of the entire flood and the selected safe water levels is drawn in Figure 7.…”

Section: The Results Using the Release Capacity Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, many uncertainties are associated with the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions [9][10][11]. The uncertainties include the magnitude and time of occurrence of the disasters, the communication of information between different management departments, and the response uncertainty of the evacuated people, and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

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Real-time flood control operations of a cascade reservoir system under emergency conditions can reduce the social and economic loss caused by natural disasters. This paper proposes a risk-based model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions and uncertainties. The proposed model consists of three modules: emergency scenarios establishing, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis. The emergency scenarios considered are earthquakes, extreme floods and failure of the spillways of a reservoir. The uncertainty factor considered is the forecast error of reservoir inflows, arising from model structural uncertainty and parameter estimating. The Monte Carlo simulations conduct the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs considering the proposed emergency events and uncertainties. The module of risk analysis performs the assessment of the operation schedules and calculates the risk of dam overtopping, based on the results from Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to a cascade reservoir system in the upper reaches of Daduhe river basin in China. The results show that the maximum initial water level of the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is 2447 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) using the release capacity model and is 2444.5 m a.s.l. using the command model under the scenario of upstream dam break. The integrated risk of the reservoir increases with the initial water level and the uncertainty degree of the reservoir inflows. The decision-makers can choose the operation models according to the actual initial water level of the reservoir under different emergency scenarios.

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Section: The Results For the Scenario Of Spillway Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Results Using the Release Capacity Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Hidrologijos laboratorijoje išana lizuoti upių nuotėkio bei jo ekstremalių reikšmių (potvynių ir sausmečio) pokyčiai klimato kaitos fone, įvertinta potvynių ir sausmečio pavojaus ri zika įvairiose aplinkose ir veiklose (gamtos apsau ga, vandens išteklių naudojimas, energetika). Iš ana lizuoti tikėtini Kuršių marių vandens balanso pokyčiai XXI a. Pagrindiniai atliktų darbų rezul tatai paskelbti aukšto mokslinio lygio leidiniuose, dažnai kartu su užsienio ir kitų Lietuvos mokslo įstaigų kolegomis [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].…”

Section: įVadasunclassified

Klimato kaitos įtakos Lietuvos vandens ištekliams tyrimai

Kriaučiūnienė¹,

Gailiušis²,

Šarauskienė³

et al. 2016

energetika

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“…Correspondingly, it is desired to develop a more efficient, equitable, and environmentally-benign management plan to water resources allocation among multiple competing users within a basin context under various uncertainties and complexities. Previously, many researchers employed stochastic mathematical programming (SMP) methods for planning water resources management under uncertainty (Kasiviswanathan and Sudheer 2013;Kriauciuniene et al 2013;Li and Huang 2013;Syme 2014). SMP is an extension of mathematical programming to decision problems whose coefficients (input data) are not certainly known but could be represented as chances or probabilities (Birge 1985;Huang 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for risk assessment in water resources allocation

Zhuang

Guo

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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In this study, an inexact joint probabilistic programming (IJPP) approach is developed for risk assessment and uncertainty reflection in water resources management systems. IJPP can dominate random parameters in the model's left-and right-hand sides of constraints and interval parameters in the objective function. It can also help examine the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints, which allows an increased robustness in controlling system risk in the optimization process. Moreover, it can facilitate analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised targets are violated within a multistage context. The IJPP method is then applied to a case study of planning water resources allocation within a multi-reservoir and multi-period context. Solutions of system benefit, economic penalty, water shortage, and water-allocation pattern vary with different risks of violating water-demand targets from multiple competitive users. Results also demonstrate that different users possess different waterguarantee ratios and different water-allocation priorities. The results can be used for helping water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for risk control, and to determine which of these designs can most efficiently accomplish optimizing the system objective under uncertainty.

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Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

Cited by 25 publications

References 23 publications

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Klimato kaitos įtakos Lietuvos vandens ištekliams tyrimai

An inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for risk assessment in water resources allocation

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