Ethnic conflict and refugees

Newland, Kathleen

doi:10.1080/00396339308442675

Cited by 33 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…It has also been argued that ethnic discrimination and persecution is an important cause of refugee flows (Clay, 1984;Newland, 1993;Kaufmann, 1996Kaufmann, , 1998Kaufmann, , 1999Moore and Shellman, 2002a). However, Schmeidl (1997) finds only a weak association between ethnic rebellion and refugee migration, and Moore and Shellman do not find any significant differences in the likelihood and magnitude of forced migration flows between ethnic and non-ethnic civil wars (Moore and Shellman 2002a, pp.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 98%

Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration

Melander

Öberg

2006

International Interactions

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In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects of duration dependence in forced migration flows that have not been noticed in previous research. The engine of previous theoretical arguments on forced migration has been a decision theoretic model in which the potential migrants estimate the threat to their security and then weigh this threat against costs and benefits of leaving. Moreover, in previous arguments and empirical tests the costs and benefits for relocating have been treated as being the same for all people in a country. We relax this assumption, allowing the costs and benefits of relocating to be different for different individuals. This implies that some people more readily relocate than others. Over time this generates a selection effect in the population that remains behind, such that the remaining population will become increasingly unwilling or unable to relocate. The implications of our theoretical refinement are borne out empirically. Contrary to previous research we find that the accumulated stock of forced migrants decrease rather than increase the probability of new migration. Furthermore, we find that forced migrant flows abate rather than soar over time.The decision to flee one's home from fear of war and persecution must undoubtedly be one of the hardest to make. It means abandoning almost everything that is dear and familiar for the hardships, uncertainties, and dangers that typically confront a refugee. When do people opt for this drastic The authors would like to thank Mats Hammarström and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and Tarek Abou Chabake for providing UNHCR data. Replication data and do-files can be downloaded from

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Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 98%

Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration

Melander

Öberg

2006

International Interactions

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“…As noted above, Newland (1993) argues that ethnic divisions frequently underlie the violent conflicts that generate refugee flows. Sambanis (2001) argues that ethnic civil wars can be distinguished from nonethnic civil wars, and his analyses provide support for his argument.…”

Section: Research Design Operational Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fear of Persecution

Moore

Shellman

2004

Journal of Conflict Resolution

229

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Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, the authors contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from this argument the authors use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Their findings are held to be consistent with their argument, showing that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institution or the average size of the economy.

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“…Democratisation can lead to less stability if states are slow to implement new laws and regulations to reflect the regime change (Newland 1993). Similarly, when autocratic regimes come to power, political migrant flows increase due to the uncertainty or negative conditions that minority group members face (Gordenker 1987;Zolberg et al 1989).…”

Section: Rebellion and Emigration As Collective Responses To Group Thmentioning

confidence: 96%