Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

The Nexus between Citizen Participation and Engagement in Elections and Development in Ghana: Empirical Evidence from Voters in Four Electorally-Swing Constituencies in Ghana

“…Regardless of the perspective from which the debate is anchored, it is evident that neither argument can be convincingly maintained, as the predicament faced by developing nations such as Ghana does not allow for a singular choice to be made. The challenge of political and economic progression in a majority of these countries, including Ghana, demands concurrent consideration of political, sociocultural, and economic factors and issues (Bukari, 2017, Anaman & Bukari, 2019a, 2019b, 2022Anaman, 2016;Alidu & Bukari, 2020;Anaman & Bukari, 2021). This paper aligns with the view that political and economic liberation should be pursued concurrently and that prioritizing one over the other from the outset is inherently flawed.…”

“…The analysis draws on data from a random sample of 600 individual voters residing in Ghana's four most pivotal electorally swing constituencies. The study seeks to unpack an array of the political economy matters associated with election and perceived individual and communal socio-economic ramifications within the Agona East, Effutu, Sunyani, and Techiman North constituencies (Bukari, 2017;Anaman & Bukari, 2019a, 2019b, 2021Alidu & Bukari, 2020;Bukari, 2022).…”

“…Undoubtedly, the establishment and perpetuation of a democratic atmosphere are crucial for cultivating and maintaining conditions conducive to robust and equitable progress, rendering it an indispensable accompaniment to wellfounded economic strategies (Bollen & Jackman, 1985;Anaman & Bukari, 2019a, 2019bAlidu & Bukari, 2020;Anaman & Bukari, 2021;Bukari, 2022). It is indisputable that within Africa, the capacity to tackle developmental impediments on the continent hinges upon the characteristics of democratic governance.…”

How Did Voters Decide in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections in Ghana? The Implications for Future Elections

“…The era from February 24, 1966, to January 7, 1993, witnessed a significant level of political instability characterised by a series of both successful and unsuccessful military coups. It was during this period that the Fourth Republican Constitutional System was introduced (Bukari, 2017;Alidu & Bukari, 2020;Anaman & Bukari, 2021;Bukari, 2022;Bukari et al, 2022a&b;Mbowura et al, 2023).…”

Is the selection of Ghanaian policy makers based on socio-cultural and ethnic reasonings relevant in today’s politics? Evidence from the Cape Coast Metropolis in Ghana

“…For example, in Ghana, has demonstrated that owing to the scarcity and ambiguity of political information, voters tend to resort to social identities, particularly ethnicity, for heuristic cues on how to vote. Others also argued that being aware of the influence of socio-ethnic identity, personal linkages and clientelism, Ghanaian leaders often resort to ethnic identities as the basis for forming political voters and mobilising support for their parties, and the cycle continues (Alidu & Bukari, 2020;Adams, Agomor & Youmbi, 2018). What this means is that the vital element that shapes the decision and electoral choice of the citizens is dependent on socio-cultural and ethnic reasoning without taking into account the relevance of policy alternatives.…”