The study dealt with the analysis of macroeconomic impact of national presidential elections in Ghana during the Fourth Republican period from 1992 to 2016 based on effects of these elections on economic growth, government budget deficits, inflation and interest rates. Using annual data covering the period, 1992 to 2016, the analysis indicated that national elections did not lead to significant increase in annual economic growth as measured by the changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the increase in government budget deficits during election years was established. Further, based on quarterly data covering 100 periods from 1992 to 2016, we showed that elections produced significantly higher levels of inflation and interest rates. Our study confirmed anecdotal evidence of worsening macroeconomic performance of the economy of Ghana as a result of national presidential elections which hurt ordinary Ghanaians especially those living on fixed incomes such as pensioners due to higher inflation, and also adversely affected small and medium scale businessmen as a result of increased borrowing costs from higher interest rates.

During the Fourth Republican electioneering era in Ghana, starting in November 1992, presidential elections are conducted every four years. The 2000 and 2012 elections closely coincided with the national population censuses of 2000 and 2010, respectively. We constructed meso-level models, based on the concept of “average district voter”, to analyse factors influencing voter turnout rates. The results of the analysis indicated that voting was a normal good based on the estimated inelastic price and income elasticities of demand for this good. As expected, the cost of voting incurred by an individual negatively influenced turnout. The other significant negative factors influencing turnout rates included increasing male/female sex ratio (gender), increasing age-based dependency ratio (poverty burden), and disability.

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

Candidate selection procedures play a crucial role in shaping parliaments and influencing the quality of democracy. Yet, our understanding of what motivates parties to reform candidate selection mechanisms at specific points in time is limited. To address this gap, we examine the experience of Ghana’s National Democratic Congress (NDC), which reformed its selection procedures in 2015 allowing all party members to vote in primary elections for parliamentary candidates. We ask what triggered these reforms and identify four motivations—the confluence of which explains why the reforms were adopted in 2015. These motivations were: making the party more democratic by expanding participation, reducing the cost of the primary process, building the party’s organizational capacity, and keeping up with the party’s main competitor. Together, these led NDC leaders to believe that reforms would benefit the party. However, a divergence between actual and intended effects meant some of these benefits were not realized, so the NDC reversed its reforms. This case suggests that the current shift towards more inclusive candidate selection mechanisms across parts of Africa will not be linear: party leaders will adopt such reforms when they believe it is in their party’s interest.

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