European Grapevine Moth and Vitis vinifera L. Phenology in the Douro Region: (A)synchrony and Climate Scenarios

Abstract

The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051–2080, with respect to the historic period (1989–2015). For cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2051–2080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving insights into their future interactions.

Exploring future changes in synchrony between grapevine (<i>Vitis vinifera</i>) and its major insect pest, <i>Lobesia botrana</i>

“…Other studies find similar results with asynchrony, especially between G3 and the veraison at the end of the century (Reis et al, 2021b).…”

Vegetation phenology from Sentinel 2 data: a GIS open source application

“…Besides, several factors must be considered when estimating these metrics. For instance, Reis et al [18] evaluated the impact of climate change on the phenology of both the grapevine in the Douro region to provide useful information to support strategies of management for the regional winegrowers and decision-makers, concluding that there are different dynamics in the phenology depending on elevation and thermal accumulation to reach a certain stage. The results indicating that this dynamic means that there are different timings of the phenology in the region.…”

Climate change impacts on phenology and ripening of cv. Touriga Nacional in the Dão wine region, Portugal

“…Several studies have been conducted in recent years, using different models combined with climate change scenarios, to assess future changes in grapevine phenological timings (Webb et al ., 2007; Caffarra and Eccel, 2011; Xu et al ., 2012; Cuccia et al ., 2014; Fraga et al ., 2016a; 2016b; Ramos, 2017; Blanco‐Ward et al ., 2019; Costa et al ., 2019; Ramos and Martínez de Toda, 2020; Reis et al ., 2021). All of these studies showed that the main phenological stages (budbreak, flowering, veraison) and harvest would advance in the future, but with a more pronounced advancement foreseen for veraison and harvest than for the earlier stages.…”