European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: A Lagrangian analysis

Abstract

Abstract. Heatwaves are prolonged periods of anomalously high temperatures that can have devastating impacts on the environment, society and economy. In the recent history, heatwaves have become more intense and more numerous over most continental areas and it is expected that this trend will continue due to the ongoing global temperature rise. This general intensification may be modified by changes also in the underlying thermodynamical and dynamical processes. In order to study potential changes in heatwave characteristics and dynamics, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of air streams associated with historic (1991–2000) and future (2091–2100) heatwaves in six different European regions. We use a percentile-based method (Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily) to identify heatwaves in a large ensemble of climate simulations (Community Earth System Model – Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with 35 members). In general, we find that air parcels associated with heatwaves are located to the east or inside the respective regions three days prior to the events. For future heatwaves, the model projects a north-/northeastward shift of the origin of the air masses in most study regions. Compared to climatological values, air streams associated with heatwaves show a larger temperature increase along their trajectory, which is connected to stronger descent and/or stronger diabatic heating when the air parcels enter the boundary layer. We find stronger descent associated with adiabatic warming in the northern, more continental regions and increased diabatic heating in all regions (except of the British Isles) in the simulated future climate. The enhanced diabatic heating is even more pronounced for heatwaves over continental regions. Diabatic temperature changes of near-surface air are driven by sensible heat fluxes, which are stronger over dry soils. The amplified diabatic heating associated with future heatwaves may thus be explained by an additional drying of the land surface.

Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

“…attributed to thermodynamic changes, or to an increase in global mean temperature (Rastogi et al, 2020;Vogel, Zscheischler, et al, 2020) and local land-atmosphere feedbacks (Donat et al, 2017;Seneviratne et al, 2006), with also changes in the atmospheric circulation playing a role for example, in Eurasia and North America (Horton et al, 2015;Rousi et al, 2022;Schielicke & Pfahl, 2022;Suarez-Gutierrez et al, 2020). Future projected changes in drought are sensitive to the index used (Cook et al, 2018;Dai, 2011Dai, , 2013.…”