Evaluating the impact of climate on forest vulnerability to fires

Abstract

Abstract:The assessment of the threat of forest fires usually includes identification of factors and quantification of risk levels. This work presents an approach to modeling the risk of forest fires caused by climate impacts. Climate Impact Assessment is based on the significance of air temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. The analysis is based on the meteorological data obtained from 26 meteorological stations in Serbia for the period from 1981 to 2010. The analysis is used to predict the areas where the expected rate of fire is high. The method is simple; it describes the key variables for the risk under climate impacts and the spatial pattern of risk. It is suitable for operational use by authorized services. The risk of forest fire is classified as negligible, small, medium and large. The database and analysis results were used to build the matrix of risk assessment of forest fires in Serbia. A great part of the territory of Serbia is relatively highly sensitive to forest fires. The lowest consequences of climate impacts are visible in the areas of Kopaonik and Zlatibor. In Serbia, there is no place where there is a negligible risk of fire. Further research, especially in terms of the relationship between climate change and the adaptive capacity of existing forest ecosystems, species and existing genotypes, is urgently needed in Serbia.

Potential influence of meteorological variables on forest fire risk in Serbia during the period 2000-2017

“…The combination of climate and forest coverage leads to a high potential danger for fire in southern and eastern Serbia, especially in the warmest and driest months of the year, which are July and August. The significance of the impact of climate change on forest-fire risk is greatest for Belgrade and minimal for the area of Kopaonik and Zlatibor [29].…”