To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data for 15 meteorological stations across Serbia were used to construct fire indices. The daily values of the Ångström and Nesterov indices were calculated for the period 2000-2017. A high number of forest fires occurred in 2007 and 2012 in Serbia, during a period of extremely high air temperatures in 2007, followed by the longest heat wave and the worst drought in 2012. In order to identify the ideal weather conditions for fire break outs, different combinations of input variables, e.g., meteorological variables (mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed), fire danger indices or a combination of both, for the Belgrade area during the period 1986-2017, were tested. It was found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires.

No abstract

⎯ The dependence of the influence of extreme climate conditions on the variability of forest fires in the Timočka Krajina region of northeastern Serbia was studied. The impact of extreme conditions was investigated with extreme climate indices using air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation measured at three meteorological stations in northeastern Serbia. The De Martonne index was used to analyze climate conditions as a measure for aridity. The study analyzes trends in extreme climate indices with an emphasis on the two contrasting years, 2012 and 2014, and compares them to the baseline period 1961-1990. The year 2012 was very warm and dry, while 2014 was one of the wettest recorded in Serbia. There was an increase (decrease) in warm (cold) temperature indices. Non-significant increases in extreme precipitation indices were observed, while the number of precipitation events greater than 1 mm decreased, as did relative humidity. Ångström index values were used as an index for assessing the risk of forest fires. These indices were analyzed and a correlation between them and forest fires in northeastern Serbia was established. The aridity index was low during the years 2012, 2011, and 2017, correlating with the large number of forest fires. High values of the Ångström index in 2013 and 2014 were associated with a minimum number of registered forest fires. As an improved indicator for the number of forest fires, the modified Ångström index using daily maximum temperature is proposed.

Fires in nature are caused by moisture content in the burning material, which is dependent on the values of the climatic elements. The occurrence of these fires in Serbia is becoming more common, depending on the intensity and duration have a major impact on the state of vegetation. The aim of this study was to determine the association between changes in air temperature and the dynamics of the appearance of forest fires. To study the association of these properties were used Pearson correlation coefficients. The analysis is based on meteorological data obtained from meteorological station in Negotin for the period 1991-2010. Research has found that the annual number of fires, correlating with an average annual air temperature (p = 0.317, ρ = 0.21). Also, it was found that the annual number of fires positive, medium intensity, correlate with the absolute maximum air temperature (p = 0.578, ρ = 0.26), but not statistically significant (p> 0.05).

Abstract:The assessment of the threat of forest fires usually includes identification of factors and quantification of risk levels. This work presents an approach to modeling the risk of forest fires caused by climate impacts. Climate Impact Assessment is based on the significance of air temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. The analysis is based on the meteorological data obtained from 26 meteorological stations in Serbia for the period from 1981 to 2010. The analysis is used to predict the areas where the expected rate of fire is high. The method is simple; it describes the key variables for the risk under climate impacts and the spatial pattern of risk. It is suitable for operational use by authorized services. The risk of forest fire is classified as negligible, small, medium and large. The database and analysis results were used to build the matrix of risk assessment of forest fires in Serbia. A great part of the territory of Serbia is relatively highly sensitive to forest fires. The lowest consequences of climate impacts are visible in the areas of Kopaonik and Zlatibor. In Serbia, there is no place where there is a negligible risk of fire. Further research, especially in terms of the relationship between climate change and the adaptive capacity of existing forest ecosystems, species and existing genotypes, is urgently needed in Serbia.