Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed

Ertürk, Ali; Ekdal, Alpaslan; Gürel, Melike; Karakaya, Nusret; Güzel, Çiğdem; Gönenç, Ethem

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.001

Cited by 72 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 51 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although the existence of a decreasing trend in the yearly precipitation has not been unanimously reported in all the studies, they agree in pointing at a change in the in-year precipitation pattern, with higher precipitation during fall and winter and lower rainfall during summer (Chaouche, 2010;Molina-Navarro et al, 2014). Those modified patterns, combined with land use changes, will decrease the amount of water recharge to the aquifers (Candela et al, 2009;Ertürk et al, 2014). This will provoke lower water tables and decreased groundwater discharge, which may consequently reduce stream baseflow and impact water supply and groundwater dependent ecosystems (Kløve et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Recent climate and land use change studies in the Mediterranean region pointed at temperature and evapotranspiration increase, especially during summer (Chaouche et al, 2010;Candela et al, 2012;Molina-Navarro et al, 2014;Ertürk et al, 2014). Although the existence of a decreasing trend in the yearly precipitation has not been unanimously reported in all the studies, they agree in pointing at a change in the in-year precipitation pattern, with higher precipitation during fall and winter and lower rainfall during summer (Chaouche, 2010;Molina-Navarro et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

Pulido-Velázquez¹,

Peña‐Haro

García-Prats³

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium-and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate polPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosc...

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

Pulido-Velázquez¹,

Peña‐Haro

García-Prats³

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Furthermore, SWAT has been used in many studies investigating climate and land use change impacts on the water cycle and water quality (e.g. Ertürk et al, 2014;Kim et al, 2013;Luo et al, 2013;Salmoral et al, 2014). SWAT is a process-based semi-distributed continuous hydrological model.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans

Soulis

Muñoz‐Mas

Martínez‐Capel

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

103

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems.

show abstract

“…Additionally, SWAT applications have become more prevalent in Europe and other parts of the world as evidenced by studies presented in international SWAT conferences (Kronvang et al ., ; Tuppad et al ., ; Gassman et al ., ). Furthermore, SWAT is increasingly being used to evaluate agricultural water management strategies and their impacts on water availability (Ertürk et al ., ; Reshmidevi and Kumar, ). Although extensive literature exists on the application of SWAT, many lack detailed information on model sensitivity analysis and calibration and validation procedures (White and Chaubey, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Evapotranspiration for Dryland Cropping Systems in the Semiarid Texas High Plains Using SWAT

Marek

Gowda

Evett

et al. 2016

J American Water Resour Assoc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed models for simulating hydrology in response to agricultural management practices. However, limited studies have been performed to evaluate the SWAT model's ability to estimate daily and monthly evapotranspiration (ET) in semiarid regions. ET values were simulated using ArcSWAT 2012 for a lysimeter field managed under dryland conditions at the USDA‐ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas, and compared with measured lysimeter values from 2000 to 2010. Two scenarios were performed to compare SWAT's performance: (1) use of default plant leaf area index (LAI) values in the embedded plant database and (2) adjusted LAI values. Scenario 1 resulted in an “unsatisfactory” Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.42 and 0.38 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Scenario 2 resulted in a “satisfactory” NSE value for the calibration period while achieving a “good” NSE of 0.70 for the validation period. SWAT generally underestimated ET at both the daily and monthly levels. Overestimation during fallow years may be due to the limitations of the pothole function used to simulate furrow diking. Users should be aware of potential errors associated with using default LAI parameters. Inaccuracies in ET estimation may also stem from errors in the plant stress functions, particularly when evaluating water management practices for dryland watersheds.

show abstract

Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed

Cited by 72 publications

References 51 publications

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans

Estimating Evapotranspiration for Dryland Cropping Systems in the Semiarid Texas High Plains Using SWAT

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About