Evaluating the Impact of Test-and-Treat on the HIV Epidemic among MSM in China Using a Mathematical Model

Luo, Sitong; Han, Lei; Lu, Hongzhou; Dou, Zhi; Qian, Tao; Khoshnood, Kaveh; Wu, Zunyou; Xu, Jing

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0126893

Cited by 23 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Therefore, these strategies would have better effects. These findings were consistent with those of studies (13,15,17,32). Improve frequency of condom use was the best way to control HIV/AIDS epidemic among MSM.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the impact of Different Intervention Strategies on HIV Transmission among MSM in China

Gao²,

Zu³

et al. 2019

MRAJ

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Objective: This study utilized a mathematical model to compare the dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM) in China by different antiviral therapy strategies, and explored the impact of anti-retroviral therapy (ART), voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) and condom use on the transmission of HIV among MSM individually. Design: The study is a research of theoretical epidemiologyMethods: A mathematical model was built to simulate the HIV and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic among MSM in China starting in 2015. The different antiviral therapy strategies and the individual effects of these HIV/AIDS interventions among MSM were analyzed. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the model results were impacted by each parameter individually.Results: Compared to antiviral therapy strategies, cumulative HIV infections and AIDS cases will be reduced by 87.3% and 80.7%, respectively, in a universal test-and-treat strategy. Compared to current antiviral therapy strategies, cumulative HIV infections and cumulative AIDS cases will be reduced by 34%and 26.7%, respectively, in a universal test-and-treat strategy.Based on an estimated minimum coverage, if ART against HIV infection is increased every one double, by 2025 cumulative HIV infections and AIDS cases have an average reduction of 24.2% and 23.2%, respectively. If the coverage of VCT is increased every one double, cumulative HIV infections and AIDS cases have an average reduction of 14.2% and 13.5%,

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the impact of Different Intervention Strategies on HIV Transmission among MSM in China

Gao²,

Zu³

et al. 2019

MRAJ

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“…Such a model is used to analyze the dynamic characteristics of disease transmission quantitatively, to indicate transmission patterns, and to predict the epidemiological trends of the disease. Dynamic transmission models have been constructed successfully for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome), and malaria to analyze transmission patterns, predict epidemiological trends, and evaluate the effect of intervention measures [14][15][16][17][18]. These models have provided important evidence for the scientific control and prevention of these diseases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo

Xiao

et al. 2016

PLoS ONE

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We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

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“…Depending on risk populations, the diagnostic coverage may greatly differ due to different awareness of risky behavior. A study in China has for instance focused on men having sex with men (MSM), demonstrating that HIV incidence is likely reduced by 50–70% subject to substantial scale up of diagnostic coverage and ART from 50 and 39% in 2010 to both 70% [ 22 ]. Understanding the transmission dynamics in the present day including the proportions of diagnosed, those followed-up and those adhered to HIV, the topical epidemiological question to answer may be to see if the effective reproduction number is achieved to be smaller than the value of one and if the elimination threshold was met.…”

Section: Future Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling

Nah

Nishiura

Tsuchiya

et al. 2017

Theor Biol Med Model

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The public benefit of test-and-treat has induced a need to justify goodness for the public, and mathematical modeling studies have played a key role in designing and evaluating the test-and-treat strategy for controlling HIV/AIDS. Here we briefly and comprehensively review the essence of contemporary understanding of the test-and-treat policy through mathematical modeling approaches and identify key pitfalls that have been identified to date. While the decrease in HIV incidence is achieved with certain coverages of diagnosis, care and continued treatment, HIV prevalence is not necessarily decreased and sometimes the test-and-treat is accompanied by increased long-term cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART). To confront with the complexity of assessment on this policy, the elimination threshold or the effective reproduction number has been proposed for its use in determining the overall success to anticipate the eventual elimination. Since the publication of original model in 2009, key issues of test-and-treat modeling studies have been identified, including theoretical problems surrounding the sexual partnership network, heterogeneities in the transmission dynamics, and realistic issues of achieving and maintaining high treatment coverage in the most hard-to-reach populations. To explicitly design country-specific control policy, quantitative modeling approaches to each single setting with differing epidemiological context would require multi-disciplinary collaborations among clinicians, public health practitioners, laboratory technologists, epidemiologists and mathematical modelers.

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Evaluating the Impact of Test-and-Treat on the HIV Epidemic among MSM in China Using a Mathematical Model

Cited by 23 publications

References 24 publications

Modeling the impact of Different Intervention Strategies on HIV Transmission among MSM in China

Modeling the impact of Different Intervention Strategies on HIV Transmission among MSM in China

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling

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