Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Han, Zixuan; Zhang, Qiong; Li, Qiang; Feng, Ran; Haywood, Alan M.; Tindall, Julia; Hunter, Stephen J.; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, Esther C.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Zhang, Zhongshi; Li, Xiangyu; Guo, Chuncheng; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Stepanek, Christian; Lohmann, Gerrit; Sohl, Linda E.; Chandler, Mark A.; Tan, Ning; Ramstein, Gilles; Baatsen, Michiel; Heydt, Anna S. von der; Chandan, Deepak; Peltier, W. R.; Williams, Charles; Lunt, Daniel J.; Cheng, Jianjun; Wen, Qin; Burls, Natalie J.

doi:10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021

Cited by 33 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 114 publications

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“…Changes in precipitation patterns between the four sensitivity simulations show large differences between the response to atmospheric pCO 2 and other model boundary conditions. In line with the findings of Han et al (2021), the effect of a CO 2 doubling is mainly that wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier, with this effect primarily being seen in the tropics. Differences in precipitation between Pliocene and pre-industrial cases are generally much more pronounced and widespread but are also enhanced between the high-and low-CO 2 scenarios.…”

Section: Sensitivity To Pliocene Boundary Conditions Versus Atmospher...supporting

confidence: 84%

“…Regions surrounding the Indian and West Pacific oceans are much wetter in the Eoi 400 , while those around the East Pacific and Atlantic oceans become drier. This is related to a combined westward shift and expansion of the Walker circulation in our mid-Pliocene simulations (shown in most PlioMIP2 simulations by Han et al, 2021). Like many other comparable model studies, our E 280 shows a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Pacific Ocean (e.g.…”

Section: Atmospheresupporting

confidence: 76%

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Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2

et al. 2022

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Abstract. We present the Utrecht contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr). Using a standard pre-industrial configuration and the enhanced PlioMIP2 set of boundary conditions, we perform a set of simulations at various levels of atmospheric pCO2 (280, 400, and 560 ppm). This allows us to make an assessment of the mid-Pliocene reference (Eoi400) climate versus available proxy records and a pre-industrial control (E280), as well as determine the sensitivity to different external forcing mechanisms. We find that our simulated Pliocene climate is considerably warmer than the pre-industrial reference, even under the same levels of atmospheric pCO2. Compared to the E280 case, our simulated Eoi400 climate is on average almost 5 ∘C warmer at the surface. Our Eoi400 case is among the warmest within the PlioMIP2 ensemble and only comparable to the results of models with a much higher climate sensitivity (i.e. CESM2, EC-Earth3.3, and HadGEM3). This is accompanied by a considerable polar amplification factor, increased globally averaged precipitation, and greatly reduced sea ice cover with respect to the pre-industrial reference. In addition to radiative feedbacks (mainly surface albedo, CO2, and water vapour), a major contribution to the enhanced Pliocene warmth in these simulations is the warm model initialisation followed by a long spin-up, as opposed to starting from pre-industrial or present-day conditions. Added warmth in the deep ocean is partly the result of using an altered vertical mixing parameterisation in the Pliocene simulations, but this has a negligible effect at the surface. We find a stronger and deeper Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the Eoi400 case, but the associated meridional heat transport is mostly unaffected. In addition to the mean state, we find significant shifts in the behaviour of the dominant modes of variability at annual to decadal timescales. The Eoi400 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is greatly reduced (−68 %) versus the E280 one, while the AMOC becomes more variable. There is also a strong coupling between AMOC strength and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Eoi400, while North Pacific SST anomalies seem to have a reduced global influence with respect to the E280 through the weakened ENSO.

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Section: Sensitivity To Pliocene Boundary Conditions Versus Atmospher...supporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Atmospheresupporting

confidence: 76%

Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2

et al. 2022

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“…General circulation models (GCMs) and high‐resolution reanalysis datasets provide the necessary tools to explain past and present‐day observed precipitation patterns (Botsyun et al., 2019; Knorr et al., 2011; Li, Ehlers, Werner, et al., 2016; Licht et al., 2014; Maussion et al., 2014; Mölg et al., 2014; Mutz et al., 2018; Saeed et al., 2011; Wang, Tolksdorf, et al., 2021). Temporal changes in hydroclimate across the TP and CA regions during the Late Cenozoic are driven by both thermodynamic and dynamic processes (Caves et al., 2014; Han et al., 2021; Li & Morrill, 2010, 2013; Sun, Wu, Ramstein, et al., 2021). An important thermodynamic effect arises from two factors: first, a change in the specific humidity gradient caused by reduced/increased evaporation over the ocean during colder/warmer periods (e.g., Jin et al., 2012); second, an enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast (Joshi et al., 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Large‐Scale Atmospheric Dynamics on Precipitation Seasonality of the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia in Cold and Warm Climates During the Late Cenozoic

et al. 2022

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The hydroclimate of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Central Asia (CA) plays a crucial role in sustaining surface water reservoirs and thus water resources in the respective regions. In this study, we investigate the changes in Asian hydroclimate and its driving forces during specific time intervals in the last 3 Ma. We conduct high‐resolution (∼0.75° per grid cell) general circulation model ECHAM‐5 experiments with boundary conditions for the mid‐Pliocene (∼3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼21 ka), the mid‐Holocene (∼6 ka), and the pre‐industrial. Results suggest that seasonally relatively high precipitation rates (>1 mm day−1) were longer in the mid‐Pliocene and shorter in the LGM, relative to the pre‐industrial. We calculate different monsoon indices to detect changes in the intensity, strength and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and construct climatologies of mid‐latitude high‐level westerly jet (WJ) stream occurrences based on the ECHAM5 wind fields. Our results suggest that in warm periods (e.g., mid‐Pliocene or interglacial), the WJ migrates northward earlier in the year (April) and reaches higher latitudes than in the pre‐industrial, resulting in a wetter TP and CA. During cooler periods (e.g., LGM or glacial), the WJ migrates northward later in the year (June) and remains over lower latitudes, resulting in a drier TP and CA. Increased/decreased local precipitation in TP and CA for the mid‐Pliocene/LGM experiments correlates strongly with (a) intensity, strength and duration of the EASM, SASM, and the ISM and (b) WJ latitudinal position.

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“…The Asian monsoon system plays a key role in the climate system and influences societal and economic development over East Asia. Understanding East Asian rainfall changes on geological timescales is a critical issue of climate science, in particular during the Pliocene epoch (Feng et al., 2022; Han et al., 2021). This epoch is characterized by atmospheric CO 2 levels similar or slightly higher than the present anthropogenically elevated levels (Fedorov et al., 2013; Foster et al., 2017; Robinson et al., 2008), and global mean temperatures 2–5°C warmer than the preindustrial (Brierley & Fedorov, 2010; Dowsett et al., 2012; Haywood et al., 2013, 2020), which resembles climate scenarios that may become possible during the 21st century (Burke et al., 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

The Asian monsoon system plays a key role in the climate system and influences societal and economic development over East Asia. Understanding East Asian rainfall changes on geological timescales is a critical issue of climate science, in particular during the Pliocene epoch (Feng et al, 2022;Han et al, 2021). This epoch is characterized by atmospheric CO 2 levels similar or slightly higher than the present anthropogenically elevated levels (

…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe Drought Conditions in Northern East Asia During the Early Pliocene Caused by Weakened Pacific Meridional Temperature Gradient

Zheng

Fedorov

Burls

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The evolution of hydroclimate in East Asia during the Pliocene—a potential analog of the future greenhouse climate—remains highly uncertain. Here we reconstruct changes in the hydroclimate of Northern China during this epoch. Our results reveal previously undocumented severe drought conditions that persisted through the early Pliocene with a significantly greater magnitude than suggested by other records. Using a broad hierarchy of climate simulations, we find that reduction in the Pacific meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient has particularly strong impacts on precipitation over Northern China, which suggests its key role in maintaining drought conditions during the early Pliocene. The weaker Pacific meridional SST gradient causes the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over this region via a reduction of atmospheric northward moisture transport from the ocean, which enhances aridity inland. Our results highlight the fundamental control of the tropical ocean on the extra‐tropical hydrological cycle.

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Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Cited by 33 publications

References 114 publications

Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2

Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2

Influence of Large‐Scale Atmospheric Dynamics on Precipitation Seasonality of the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia in Cold and Warm Climates During the Late Cenozoic

Severe Drought Conditions in Northern East Asia During the Early Pliocene Caused by Weakened Pacific Meridional Temperature Gradient

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