Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia

Evans, Jason P.; Ekström, Marie; Ji, Fei

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1244-5

Cited by 236 publications

(190 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Sensitivity analyses of mixed physics ensembles reveal that no single model configuration systematically outperforms any other one, because meteorological variables are sensitive to various processes that are simulated differently by competitive parameterization schemes (e.g., Jankov et al 2005;Evans et al 2012). In such convectively driven episodes, cumulus parameterizations would be a logical candidate for direct uncertainty sampling.…”

Section: B Mps Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the FlashFlood Event-Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Transformation-Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall-runoff transformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for diversity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies ...

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Section: B Mps Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Amengual

Carrió

Ravazzani

et al. 2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…The wide of applications is possible due to the presence of multiple options for the physics and dynamics of WRF, enabling the user to optimize WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Determining the optimal combination of physics parameterizations to use is an increasingly difficult task as the number of parameterizations increases [13]. A range of physics combinations are used to simulate rainfall events for the purpose of optimizing WRF for dynamical downscaling in this region.…”

Section: Data and Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…rainfall events near the southeast coast of Australia known as East Coast Lows. The study [13] was made using a thirty-six member multi-physics ensemble such that each member had a unique set of physics parametrisations. These results suggested that the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme can be used with some level of robustness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effect of Physics Schemes in WRF Simulations of Summer Rainfall in North West Iran

Zeyaeyan

Fattahi

Saadatabadi

et al. 2017

Climate

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Abstract:The numerical weather forecast model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has a range of applications because it offers multiple physical options, enabling the users to optimizing WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Summer rainfall cannot be predicted well in North West of Iran (NWI). Most of them are convective. Sometimes rainfall is heavy, so that it causes flash flood. In this research, some configurations of WRF were tested with four summer rainfall events in NWI to find the best configuration. Five cumulus, four planetary boundary layers (PBL) and two microphysical schemes were combined. Twenty-six different configurations (models) were implemented at two resolutions of 5 and 15 km for duration of 48 h. Four events, with over 20 mm convective daily rainfall total, were selected at NWI during summer season between 2010 and 2015. These events were tested by developing 26 unique models. Results were verified using several methods. The aim was to find the best results during the first 24 h. Although no single configuration can be introduced for all times, thresholds, and atmospheric system to provide reliable and accurate forecast, the best configuration for WRF can be identified.

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“…The Lin (Lin et al, 1983) scheme has water vapor, cloud water, rain, cloud ice, snow and graupel included in it, and is a relatively sophisticated MPS. Lin is a commonly used scheme for various research applications (Evans et al, 2012). The WSM3 scheme (Hong et al, 2004) is based on the old NCEP3, and it can predict cloud water/ice, vapor and rain/snow.…”

Section: Microphysics Parameterization Schemesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A weather research and forecasting model evaluation for simulating heavy precipitation over the downstream area of the Yalong River Basin

Yang

Jiang

Lü³

et al. 2015

J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci. A

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Abstract:The forecasting capability of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model for heavy precipitation in the downstream area of the Yalong River Basin in Southwest China was evaluated for the first time through the simulation of three heavy precipitation events with seven commonly used microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) (Kessler, Lin et al. (Lin), Single-Moment 3-class (WSM3), Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5), Ferrier, Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), and New Thompson et al. (NTH)) and three cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) (Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), and Grell-Devenyi (GD)). Of the three rainfall events, the first two are typical large-area heavy precipitation events in the Yalong River Basin and consist of several continuous storms. The third one is a heavy precipitation event with only one storm. In this study, a triple nested domain with a 3-km grid resolution inner-most domain over the study area was configured for the WRF model. We employed the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), BIAS, and equitable threat (ET) scores to compare the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall created by the WRF model with the observations from the gauges in the downstream area of the river basin. The root mean squared errors (RMSEs) at each sub river basin and the whole downstream of Yalong River Basin were also calculated for the evaluation. In addition, it is important to include the computation efficiency when choosing a scheme combination. We recorded the time consumption for each model simulation and made comparisons for selecting the optimum scheme with less time consumption and acceptable prediction accuracy. Through comprehensive comparison, the scheme combination of WSM3 and GD holds a stable performance in leveraging the prediction accuracy and computation efficiency for the heavy precipitation events.

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Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia

Cited by 236 publications

References 34 publications

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

A Comparison of Ensemble Strategies for Flash Flood Forecasting: The 12 October 2007 Case Study in Valencia, Spain

Evaluating the Effect of Physics Schemes in WRF Simulations of Summer Rainfall in North West Iran

A weather research and forecasting model evaluation for simulating heavy precipitation over the downstream area of the Yalong River Basin

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