Evaluation and Projection of Regional Climate over East Asia in CORDEX-East Asia Phase I Experiment

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Water management is a crucial issue in East Asia and is significantly influenced by climate change. Because East Asia's precipitation characteristics are varied and complex, it is necessary to implement the analysis of the future changes in precipitation on an objectively classified, specific sub‐regional level to effectively solve these problems. In this study, sub‐regions were objectively classified according to their precipitation characteristics, based on the present observations in East Asia. Additionally, the bias‐correction technique was applied to the regional climate model (RCM) to yield more reliable future precipitation predictions for the sub‐regions. We obtained the following four key results in this study. (1) The classified sub‐regions corresponded well to the observed annual precipitation distribution and adequately reflected the influence of the summer monsoon. The annual precipitation of the classified sub‐regions exhibited a decreasing trend in arid regions and an increasing trend in humid areas. (2) Because the bias‐corrected RCM was able to simulate annual precipitation reasonably, this technique was applied to future scenarios to analyse future changes in precipitation for each classified sub‐region. (3) Future annual precipitation will increase significantly in the region spanning from the western part of Southern China to the area around the Bohai Sea, while the temporal variations of the climatological daily precipitation indicated that sub‐regions under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) will be predicted an increase in second peaks during the summer. Hence, in the future, the EASM rain belt will be strengthened and its average location will move northward from its present location. (4) Because the high‐intensity extreme precipitation indices are expected to have a more considerable increase in all the classified sub‐regions, there is a need to solidify response measures against disasters that could arise from these changes in the East Asian region.

Section: Data and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The parameter b m is determined by making the CVs of observed daily precipitation ( P APHRODITE ) and the corrected daily precipitation of the HIST experiment (

P_{HIST}^{b_{m}}

) equal. Then, the climatology of observed monthly precipitation corresponds with the monthly climatology of the intermediate series (

P_{HIST}^{* 1}

P_{italicRCP 8.5}^{* 1}

) as follows (Teutschbein and Seibert, 2012; Kim et al ., 2020);…”

Section: Data and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Future changes in precipitation for identified sub‐regions in East Asia using bias‐corrected multi‐RCMs

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Kim

et al. 2020

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Investigating future changes in precipitation interannual variability and extremes over southern China

Liu

Tam

Tong

et al. 2022

The Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4) has been used to dynamically downscale outputs from four different general circulation models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the horizontal resolution of 25 km × 25 km, in order to study changes in the Southern China hydrological cycle according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 between 2050‐to‐2099 and 1979‐to‐2003. Accompanying wetter boreal spring and summer, the interannual rainfall variability for these seasons is also enhanced. A novel moisture budget analysis shows that changes in mean background humidity (anomalous wind convergence) dominate the increase in the interannual variability in spring (summer). Extreme daily precipitation in these seasons (based on the 95th percentile) is projected to become more intense, roughly following the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation for the aforementioned seasons. On the other hand, the annual number of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is found to increase by about 3 to 5 days over locations south of 32° N, where autumn mean rainfall rate is projected to reduce (although this might be subjected to models' ability in capturing tropical cyclone activities). Analyses of the GCM raw outputs indicate that strengthened northerlies over coastal East Asia, which is likely associated with the so‐called tropical expansion, are responsible for the drier autumn.

Evaluation of multi‐RCM ensembles for simulating spatiotemporal variability of Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the CORDEX‐East Asia Phase 2 domain

Seo

Ahn

Cha

et al. 2023

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Five regional climate models (RCMs)-CCLM, RegCM, HadGEM3-RA, SNURCM and WRF-participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase 2 project are evaluated for their ability to simulate spatiotemporal variability in Asian summer precipitation. For this purpose, two dynamical downscaling sets, experiments forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis data (reproduction experiment) and historical data from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) (historical experiment) are analysed. The horizontal resolution of the