Evaluation de deux méthodes de correction de biais des sorties de modèles climatiques régionaux Cordex-Africa pour la prévision des pluies  : cas du bassin côtier oranais

Taïbi, Sabrina; Zeroual, Ayoub; Melhani, Naziha

doi:10.5194/piahs-384-213-2021

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The Qmap package found in the R software and implemented by (Gudmundsson et al 2012) was used to apply this quantile-quantile bias correction. The performance of the correction was then evaluated on the basis of the calculation of the bias of the corrected simulated data compared to the observed data using equation 1 (Taïbi et al 2021)…”

Section: Calibration Of the Chosen Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso.

2024

Global NEST: The International Journal

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<p>Climate change is an indicator of changes happening in the biosphere. Monitoring it, will anticipating actions against the resulting disasters. This study, undertaken in Burkina Faso Nouaho sub basin, gives an overview of rainfall in the near, medium and long terms. It is built on regional climates models which are climates projections from global climate models downscaling. These models are generated basis on scenarios like greenhouse gas emissions and radiative forcing called Regional Concentration Pathways (RCP). The two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 chosen in this study, have enabled to identify a rainfall regional climate model whose output corrected basis on Nouhao sub-basin observation data, highlight changes in sub-basin future precipitation. Over the three defined normal, i.e. normal 1 (2021-2050), normal 2 (2051-2080) and normal 3 (2071-2100), cumulative annual rainfall mean shows a downward trend under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and an upward trend under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows very wet years at the start of normal 1, before giving way to alternating years close to normal rainfall, in normal 2 and 3. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the SPI shows a dominance of dry years in normal 1. In normal 2 and 3, wet and very wet years return to dominate. The spatial dynamics of future rainfall, meanwhile, show a latitudinal shift in annual rainfall totals towards the south-east of the sub-basin under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and towards the north-west under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The climate projection thus highlights possible future changes in precipitation in the sub-basin. Its consideration could form the basis for the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the area.</p>

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Section: Calibration Of the Chosen Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso.

2024

Global NEST: The International Journal

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“…According to the two future scenarios, [47] discovered that drought episodes in the northwest areas are anticipated to be more severe and of longer lengths than in the past, particularly during the hot season (between May and September) between 2021 and 2071. Taïbi et al [48] discovered that the availability of surface water collected at the Ain Dalia dam in northeastern Algeria is likely to decline by 5% to 13% by 2050 and by 21% to 44% by 2100. Hadour et al [49] found similar results in some basins in the northwestern Algeria region, and Zeroual et al [50] found similar results in the Algerian-Hodna-Soummam basins.…”

Section: Change In Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Future Estimation of Cheliff-Mactaa-Tafna Streamflow via an Ensemble of Bias Correction Approaches

Renima

Zeroual²,

Hamitouche³

et al. 2022

Climate

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The role of climate change in future streamflow is still very uncertain, especially over semi-arid regions. However, part of this uncertainty can be offset by correcting systematic climate models’ bias. This paper tries to assess how the choice of a bias correction method may impact future streamflow of the Cheliff-Mactaa-Tafna (CMT) rivers. First, three correction methods (quantile mapping (QM), quantile delta mapping (QDM), and scaled distribution mapping (SDM)) were applied to an ensemble of future precipitation and temperature coming from CORDEX-Africa, which uses two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Then, the Zygos model was used to convert the corrected time series into streamflow. Interestingly, the findings showed an agreement between the three methods that revealed a decline in future streamflow up to [−42 to −62%] in autumn, [+31% to −11%] in winter, [−23% to −39%] in spring, and [−23% to −41%] in summer. The rate of decrease was largest when using QM-corrected model outputs, followed by the raw model, the SDM-corrected model, and finally, the QDM-corrected model outputs. As expected, the RCP presents the largest decline especially by the end of the 21st Century.

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The Precipitation Concentration in the Cheliff Watershed, Algeria: A Critical Analysis for Sustainable Water Resource Management

BRAHIMI,

MEDDI,

MEDDI

et al. 2023

Chn. J. Urb. Environ.Stud

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In this study, a statistical analysis of historical and projected values of the annual, seasonal, and supra-seasonal precipitation concentration index (PCI) was conducted for different stations in the Cheliff watershed. Statistical methods such as breakpoint and trend analysis using Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests were used for the PCI values of annual, monthly, and supra-seasonal precipitation data between 1950 and 2014. The PCI values varied between 14.24% and 24.86% annually, between 10.75% and 18.74% seasonally, and between 11.23% and 26.98% supra-seasonally. According to the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, there was an insignificant change in precipitation distribution during the study period. Spatial analysis using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method confirmed the minor variability in precipitation distribution in the study area. The Pearson correlation coefficient between oscillation indices and PCI values at different scales showed significant values with the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi), highlighting their potential influence on annual PCI values. For the climate projection scenarios, projected PCI values align with historical PCI values. Application of Pettitt and Mann-Kendall tests to the projected PCI series shows that there will not be a significant change in future precipitation distribution.

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Evaluation de deux méthodes de correction de biais des sorties de modèles climatiques régionaux Cordex-Africa pour la prévision des pluies : cas du bassin côtier oranais

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso.

Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso.

Improving Future Estimation of Cheliff-Mactaa-Tafna Streamflow via an Ensemble of Bias Correction Approaches

The Precipitation Concentration in the Cheliff Watershed, Algeria: A Critical Analysis for Sustainable Water Resource Management

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