Evaluation of Aerial Transect Surveys for Wintering American Black Ducks

Conroy, Michael J.; Goldsberry, James R.; Hines, James E.; Stotts, Daniel B.

doi:10.2307/3800933

Cited by 47 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Aerial surveys are widely used to estimate abundance for various animals, including wetland (Conroy et al 1988), oceanic (Finley et al 1987), and terrestrial (Bear et al 1989) species. A variety of sampling plans and estimators have been used in surveys (see Seber 1982Seber , 1986Seber , 1992 (Zarnoch 1976, Caughley 1977.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Known Populations of Pronghorn to Evaluate Sampling Plans and Estimators

Kraft¹,

Johnson²,

Samuelson³

et al. 1995

The Journal of Wildlife Management

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Known Populations of Pronghorn to Evaluate Sampling Plans and Estimators

Kraft¹,

Johnson²,

Samuelson³

et al. 1995

The Journal of Wildlife Management

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“…Examples of largescale North American surveys include monitoring breeding and wintering populations of waterfowl (Conroy et al, 1988;Smith, 1995), grassland and forest bird populations (Link and Sauer, 1999), water quality (Gilliom et al, 1995), and land use (Nusser et al, 1998). Effective surveys provide reliable data on resource status and trends and are linked to processes for making management decisions (Nichols et al, 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: A case study of rice and waterfowl

Stafford

Reinecke²,

Kaminski

et al. 2006

Journal of Environmental Management

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“…The MWS has been performed annually in the United States since the 1930s to track population trends for wintering ducks, but has been criticized for lack of sampling design and estimates of variance (Eggeman and Johnson 1989;Reinecke et al 1992). However, the MWS is well-suited to the Atlantic coast, where black ducks are widely distributed and easily counted from the air (Conroy et al 1988). Indeed, Conroy et al (1988) used 4 y of Atlantic Flyway aerial transect data to confirm that the MWS fell within the 95% confidence interval (CI) of their transect estimate for all 4 y.…”

Section: Quantifying Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the MWS is well-suited to the Atlantic coast, where black ducks are widely distributed and easily counted from the air (Conroy et al 1988). Indeed, Conroy et al (1988) used 4 y of Atlantic Flyway aerial transect data to confirm that the MWS fell within the 95% confidence interval (CI) of their transect estimate for all 4 y. To verify that the MWS was appropriate at our smaller scale, we established 9 aerial transects (1.3-22.2 km long) spaced 2 km apart over our study area.…”

Section: Quantifying Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transects were flown 3 times/y during early January 2011-2013 by the same crew and aircraft that conducted the MWS. We calculated the mean number of black ducks per transect for each year, and estimated the population size using a combinedratio estimator (Cochran 1977;Conroy et al 1988). We compared these estimates with MWS totals from segments 11, 13, and 14 in each year.…”

Section: Quantifying Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Notice: The authors have discovered an error in raw data analyzed in this paper. This article has been retracted. The corrected article is published online early as Ringelman KM, Williams CK, Castelli PM, Sieges ML, Longenecker RA, Nichols TC, Earsom AD. 2018. Estimating waterfowl carrying capacity at local scales: A case study from Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 9(1):xx-xx; e1944-687X. doi:10.3996/082017-JFWM-066.

Ringelman

Williams

Castelli

et al. 2017

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

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The management of wintering North American waterfowl is based on the premise that the amount of foraging habitat can limit populations. To estimate carrying capacity of winter habitats, managers use bioenergetic models to quantify energy (food) availability and energy demand, and use results as planning tools to meet regional conservation objectives. Regional models provide only coarse estimates of carrying capacity because habitat area, habitat energy values, and temporal trends in population-level demand are difficult to quantify precisely at large scales. We took advantage of detailed data previously collected on wintering waterfowl at Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge and surrounding marsh, New Jersey, USA, and created a well-constrained local model of carrying capacity. We used 1,223 core samples collected between 2006 and 2015 to estimate available food. We used species-specific 24-h time-activity data collected between 2011 and 2013 to estimate daily energy expenditure, morphometrically corrected for site-and day-specific thermoregulatory costs. To estimate population-level energy demand, we used standardized monthly ground-surveys (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) to create a migration curve, and proportionally scaled that to fit aerial survey data (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). Crucially, we also explicitly incorporated estimates of variance in all of these parameters and conducted a sensitivity analysis to diagnose the most important sources of variation in the model. Our results indicated that at estimated mean levels of supply (2.34 3 10 9 kcal) and cumulative demand (3.4 3 10 9 kcal), refuge resources were depleted before the end of the wintering season. However, at one standard error greater in supply and one standard error less in demand, 1.33 3 10 9 kcal remained on the landscape at the end of winter. Variation in model output appeared to be driven primarily by uncertainty in food abundance in high marsh habitats. This model allows for relative assessment of biases and uncertainties in carrying capacity modeling, and serves as a framework identifying critical science needs to improve local and regional waterfowl management planning.

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Evaluation of Aerial Transect Surveys for Wintering American Black Ducks

Cited by 47 publications

References 6 publications

Using Known Populations of Pronghorn to Evaluate Sampling Plans and Estimators

Using Known Populations of Pronghorn to Evaluate Sampling Plans and Estimators

Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: A case study of rice and waterfowl

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