Evaluation of CLM5.0 for simulating surface energy budget and soil hydrothermal regime in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ma, Junjie; Li, Ren; Liu, Hongchao; Huang, Zhongwei; Wu, Tonghua; Wu, Xiaodong; Zhao, Lin; Hu, Guojie; Xiao, Yao; Jiao, Yongliang; Liu, Wenhao; Wang, Shenning; Shi, Jianzong; Qiao, Yongping

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109380

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Observations of talik onset are sparse, but the existence of talik generally correlates with soil temperature. Near‐surface permafrost soil temperature in CLM5 agrees well with observations, and captures both trends and the seasonal cycle (Yang et al., 2022), though deeper temperatures can have a warm bias compared to observations, especially during the thawing season (Ma et al., 2023; Yang et al., 2022). The relationship between mean annual air temperature and mean annual ground temperature is also well‐represented in CLM5 compared to observations (Burke et al., 2020), and this relationship is important for accurately simulating permafrost and permafrost thaw.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 66%

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

Morrison,

Barnes,

Hurrell

2024

Earth's Future

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Permafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least 2 years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could stabilize after SAI deployment. Here we use output from the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 simulations to assess how permafrost may respond to a specific SAI strategy that maintains global mean surface temperature to 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. Permafrost responses under SAI are compared to responses under the control SSP2‐4.5 emissions scenario. We show that the rate of boreal permafrost thaw slows under SAI but does not fully stop, likely due to deep permafrost thaw processes that are resistant to surface temperatures changes. In both the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 and SSP2‐4.5 simulations, permafrost completely thaws and disappears along the southern edge of the permafrost area by 2069, indicating that some permafrost loss may be inevitable even if SAI successfully stabilizes global mean surface temperatures. SAI does prevent a potential local tipping point (talik formation) in roughly 1 million km2 of permafrost. Most of the talik prevention occurs in permafrost peatlands. Thus, a more aggressive SAI strategy than that of ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 is likely required to prevent all future projected permafrost thaw.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 66%

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

Morrison,

Barnes,

Hurrell

2024

Earth's Future

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“…Although the CLM5 has been updated and developed several times and is widely used, there are still some uncertainties in some parameterization schemes related to soil hydrological and thermal processes in the simulation. For example, Ma et al [55] evaluated the simulation performance of the CLM5 on the TP using soil temperature and moisture as well as energy flux observations, and they found that the default roughness scheme and dry surface layer scheme in the CLM5 produce a large error in the simulation of surface energy flux and soil temperature. Several other studies of thermal conductivity evaluations have shown that the CLM5 default thermal conductivity scheme provides inaccurate predictions and significantly overestimates thermal conductivity for some local soil samples [56,57].…”

Section: Uncertainty In Permafrost Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Distributions on Permafrost Simulations on Tibetan Plateau

Pan,

Li,

Wang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is distributed with large areas of permafrost, which have received increasing attention as the climate warms. Accurately modeling the extent of permafrost and permafrost changes is now an important challenge for climate change research and climate modeling in this region. Uncertainty in land use and land cover (LULC), which is important information characterizing surface conditions, directly affects the accuracy of the simulation of permafrost changes in land surface models. In order to investigate the effect of LULC uncertainty on permafrost simulation, we conducted simulation experiments on the TP using the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) with five high-resolution LULC products in this study. Firstly, we evaluated the simulation results using shallow soil temperature data and deep borehole data at several sites. The results show that the model performs well in simulating shallow soil temperatures and deep soil temperature profiles. The effect of different land use products on the shallow soil temperature and deep soil temperature contours is not obvious due to the small differences in land use products at these sites. Although there is little difference in the simulating results of different land use products when compared to the permafrost distribution map, the differences are noticeable for the simulation of the active layer. Land cover had a greater impact on soil temperature simulations in regions with greater land use inconsistency, such as at the junction of bare soil and grassland in the northwestern part of the TP, as well as in the southeast region with complex topography. The main way in which this effect occurs is that land cover affects the net surface radiation, which in turn causes differences in soil temperature simulations. In addition, we discuss other factors affecting permafrost simulation results and point out that increasing the model plant function types as well as carefully selecting LULC products is one of the most important ways to improve the simulation performance of land-surface models in permafrost regions.

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Impact of Initial Soil Conditions on Soil Hydrothermal and Surface Energy Fluxes in the Permafrost Region of the Tibetan Plateau

Luo,

Chen,

Wang

et al. 2024

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Evaluation of CLM5.0 for simulating surface energy budget and soil hydrothermal regime in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Cited by 5 publications

References 59 publications

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Distributions on Permafrost Simulations on Tibetan Plateau

Impact of Initial Soil Conditions on Soil Hydrothermal and Surface Energy Fluxes in the Permafrost Region of the Tibetan Plateau

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