Evaluation of forecast accuracy of aggregated photovoltaic power generation by unit commitment

Kato, Tatsuya; Kawai, K.; Suzuoki, Yasuo

doi:10.1109/pesmg.2013.6672455

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…where The assumption on calculating curtailment of PVS power output is that the amount of curtailment of aggregated PVS power output at time step h is determined a day before based on a UC scheduling and the acceptable power supply ratio to the installed capacity r ca (h) is announced to all PVSs. This study calculated the UC scheduling on the day shown in Figure 6 by using the UC optimization model developed in our preceding study [8]. Figure 7 shows the result.…”

Section: Curtailed Aggregated Pvs Power Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation in Consideration of Smoothing Effect of Power Output Fluctuation around Observation Point

Kato¹,

Murase²,

Kurimoto³

et al. 2024

RE&PQJ

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High penetration photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) may cause negative impacts on the frequency control of electric power system. In the impact assessment of high penetration PVS on the system frequency, the proper preparation of time-series data of aggregated PVS power output in electric power system service area is essential. However, the available data points are limited compared to the huge installation points of widely dispersed PVS in a power system service area. Therefore, this study proposes a modelling of aggregated PVS power output based on a low-pass filter (LPF) which is capable to take into account a smoothing effect of power output fluctuation around individual observation point. Then, the proposed model is applied to estimate the spatial average irradiance in the central region (called the Chubu region) in Japan by using the irradiance data observed at 61 points. The reduction in the short-cycle fluctuation is evaluated in comparison to the time-series data calculated by the simple average of 61 points data. Finally, the usefulness of proposed model is discussed in the situation that the aggregated PVS power output in electric power system service area must be curtailed due to the surplus power supply in the electric power system.

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Section: Curtailed Aggregated Pvs Power Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation in Consideration of Smoothing Effect of Power Output Fluctuation around Observation Point

Kato¹,

Murase²,

Kurimoto³

et al. 2024

RE&PQJ

Self Cite

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“…The two parameter simplified dc model of the solar battery [7,8] is as follows, According to the Eq. 6 and Eq.…”

Section: The Maximum Theory Output Power Of the Solar Energy Batterymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Solar Battery Dc Simplified Model Based Short-term Prediction Method for Urban Distributed PV Generation

Zhang¹,

Wang²,

He³

et al. 2017

dtmse

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It is the heart of the matter for development and utilization of photovoltaic (PV) station connecting grid to raise the level of short-term PV generation prediction. In addition, it is important to improve the solar photovoltaic power development and utilization and ensure the safety of the grid. This paper presents solar battery dc simplified model based short-term prediction method for urban distributed PV generation. To put into operation for the PV station recently, the proposed method owns higher accuracy. Finally, by comparing to the actual measured data with the predicted data, the experimental results have verified the validity and correctness of the proposed method.

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“…In many studies regarding the unit commitment scheduling of electric power system, the constraints on LFC capacity are assumed to be 3% of hourly average electricity demand[1]- [3]. Therefore, this study compared MFW of the original electricity demand short-run fluctuation and 3% of hourly average electricity demand corresponding to the LFC capacity.…”

Section: A Change In Lfc Capacity Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the power supply-demand balancing would be one of the major issues to be solved. Therefore, in Japan, there are many studies regarding a unit commitment scheduling and an economic load dispatching of the electric power system with the high penetration PVS [1]- [3]. However, there are few studies on the short-run fluctuation characteristics of the residual electricity load by the high penetration PVS due to the insufficient data availability of both the electricity demand and the PVS power output in Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-run fluctuation of residual load by high penetration photovoltaic power generation system

Kato

Sugimura

Kurimoto

et al. 2014

2014 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)

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By using the data of electricity demand and multipoints irradiance simultaneously observed in the Chubu region in Japan, this study statistically evaluates the short-run fluctuation of residual electricity load including the aggregated PVS power output as a negative electricity demand. The hourly maximum fluctuation width (MFW) calculated using 20 min window is evaluated as a measure of short-run fluctuation. As a result, if the longer cycles than a few ten minutes of the aggregated PVS power output are excluded, the MFW of residual electricity load is increased by only 25% on average compared with the MFW of original electricity demand. However, because of the low predictability of the ramp-up/down of aggregated PVS power output, if longer cycles than a few ten minutes are taken into account, the capacity for the load-frequency control (LFC) would be increased so much. The results suggest that further study regarding the integrated simulation of economic load dispatching control (EDC) and LFC is needed for evaluating the required flexibility of electric power system with high penetration PVS.

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Evaluation of forecast accuracy of aggregated photovoltaic power generation by unit commitment

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Modelling of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation in Consideration of Smoothing Effect of Power Output Fluctuation around Observation Point

Modelling of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation in Consideration of Smoothing Effect of Power Output Fluctuation around Observation Point

A Solar Battery Dc Simplified Model Based Short-term Prediction Method for Urban Distributed PV Generation

Short-run fluctuation of residual load by high penetration photovoltaic power generation system

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